Coronavirus Outbreak: Don’t Hold Your Breath for the COVID-19 Vaccine in 2020

Donald TrumpConfident“By the end of the year, we will be vaccinated against COVID-19, but the rest need to be more careful. As a more permanent solution to the crisis than the lockdowns currently in place around the world, Billions of dollars have been spent developing vaccines and treatments.

As of May 2020, 182 treatments and 99 different vaccines Developed globally. However, based on recent history, only one or two are likely to be transformative, couples can be partially helpful, some are shown to be at all dangerous, and the majority are We have conflicting evidence about its effectiveness.

This is because medical research is a slow and painstaking process. Also, it is very complicated and prone to wrong conclusions.

It is easy to turn enthusiasm into irony if the expectations for healing are not met as quickly as the people and politicians expect. Image Credits: Conversation / Sebastiao Moreira / EPA

Trust the experts

One of the good things that came out of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be a renewed trust in the experts. The daily presence of scientists in government briefings seems to recognize the need for these people to kill the virus, not deserve our doubts.

However, the more credible the experts are, the more in-depth scientific research is conducted. latest Research showing promising results It became headline news. There’s no doubt that a cure for COVID-19 will eventually be found, but if the public and politicians can’t live up to their expectations as fast as they might expect, this can be worrisome, as their enthusiasm turns ironically.

While thousands of drugs hold promise in early animals or clinical trials, for example: Vaccine test At Oxford University – The overwhelming majority of early promises never make it into everyday clinical use. on average US $ 1 billion (£ 850 million) for over 12 years To bring medicines to market.

Good research takes time

I chair the Research Ethics Committee. Over the past few years, I have reviewed thousands of research protocols that represent some of the best and sometimes very poor examples of medical research.

Good research is defined as rigorous and reliable, and it is not only interesting, but it also produces practical, useful, and in some cases transformative results. They are also reported clearly and transparently in the context of previous studies. This is exactly the type of research needed to deal with the COVID-19 crisis.

But such good research comes at a price. Many in society are thinking about costs in terms of dollars and pounds, and in fact are paying attention to our own survival and lobbying for more investment, not to mention scientists and researchers. . The money to order the chemicals you need, the money to access highly specialized equipment, or the money to pay others to perform experiments and quickly analyze the results is very helpful, but time You have to be careful not to underestimate the importance of thinking carefully over what the results really mean.

Only after the investigator has spent time understanding the context of the results will they be able to turn them into effective applications or treatments. Therefore, the actual cost of good research is time.

The frustrating truth about medical research is that the vast majority of experiments seem to fail because the subject being studied is so complex. In fact, many experiments are not just definitive, rather than “not working.” To make progress, take the time to slow down, look at the evidence, and think very carefully about what the results mean.

Positive results in animals often do not lead to scientific progress for humans. From www.shutterstock.com

The thoughts needed for this take years. While the team was trying to figure out why one animal had a cardiovascular complication, I was involved in one project that was nearly a decade behind. Another project I worked on is Alzheimer-like pathology in miceStill, after 18 years, similar effects have not yet been conclusively shown to humans. Superbly, the team is still working on it.

In reality, the long road to vaccines and medicines for all diseases is littered with trials that have not led to the expected results. Even if the research is successful, it takes a long time to get from the lab to the general public.

Pressure to find a cure

One of the worrisome aspects of the current situation is the pressure for researchers to work quickly and come up with a COVID-19 solution almost immediately. Perhaps, for the first time, financial resources are not a limiting factor, so politicians and the general public expect researchers to receive cash and provide answers. This can be streamlined by regulators or Pause Some normal processes to ensure that the treatment reaches the clinic as quickly as possible.

Some researchers may want to engage in suspicious research practices when attracted by their promise of unlimited funding, and perhaps even when their chosen ideas work, to fame. Historically, there has been a growing temptation to commit, commit fraud, cheat, and perform other suspicious acts whenever a large sum of money is involved. The UK spent more than £ 400m during the 2009 swine flu outbreak Inflated by Manufacturers due to publication bias – Negative or inconclusive results of a trial have not been published in scientific journals, but positive results have been published.

Without proper scrutiny, there is a real risk of getting used to ineffective or even harmful treatments. This may be considered an acceptable risk in the current crisis, but if so, it is important that new therapies be very carefully monitored and, without hesitation, discontinued if the harm is high.

At a given time (probably 2 years, 3 years, or even 10 years), researchers gather evidence from experiments and tests, perform meta-analyses and systematic reviews, hold international conferences, After careful consideration, what is the best cure for COVID-19?

The world clearly needs scientific and medical answers to the current pandemics as soon as possible, but at the beginning it must be realized that only partial or tentative answers can be found. Instead of a rapid vaccine that completely prevents COVID-19, various partial successes are combined until a final, complete solution is found.

There may be blind alleys with promising but ultimately futile treatment ideas. This is not a research failure or misuse of resources. Above all, researchers need to be supported in good faith, and undoubtedly don’t scapegoat the challenges ahead.

Simon Colstow, University of Portsmouth, Evidence-based Healthcare Senior Lecturer and College Ethics Advisor

This article has been reissued from conversation Under Creative Commons license. Read Original work.

Update: May 7, 2020 10:39:14 IST

tag:

Antibody test,

Coronavirus,

Coronavirus case,

Coronavirus blockade,

Coronavirus outbreak,

Coronavirus test,

Coronavirus vaccine,

cure,

Death case,

Relaxation of lockdown restrictions,

Frontline workers,

Increase in coronavirus cases,

Pandemic,

processing,

vaccine,

WHO