Health
Chris Whitty warns that once the restrictions are lifted, Covid’s “exit wave” is inevitable.
The UK’s chief medical officer said the country would face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections each time the restrictions were lifted.
Professor Chris Whitty He said there was no “ideal date” to end the blockade, and if that happened, hospitalizations and deaths would increase.
At a No. 10 press conference, Boris Johnson confirmed that most legal regulations, including the rules of social distance, will end in the UK starting next Monday.
However, Professor Whitti said it is imperative to proceed “steadily and cautiously” to reduce the number of people who become seriously ill.
“There is a very broad consensus that every time you go through the next step, you get a so-called exit wave. There is a wave associated with it,” he said.
“The slower we take it, the fewer people will be. COVID, The peak will be smaller and the number of people who will be hospitalized and die will be smaller. “
Current modeling does not predict wave peaks until mid-August. There are 1,000 to 2,000 hospitalizations per day in mid-August, and the death toll is expected to reach 100 to 200 per day, but there is considerable uncertainty.
Sir Patrick Valence, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the country was “undoubtedly” in the midst of a third wave of viruses.
He said the deployment of vaccination reduced the number of serious illnesses, but increased infections meant more hospitalizations and deaths.
“The relationship between infectious diseases and hospitalization is different, but it still exists,” he said.
“If behavior quickly returns to pre-pandemic levels, it will be a very very large rise (in the case of infections). If you go slowly and carefully, the rise will be less,” he said. ..
“There is no clear evidence,” Whitty said, and further delaying the release would make a difference in the overall number.
“There is no such thing as an ideal date. Every conceivable date has its drawbacks,” he said.
“If I can go at this point, I’ll go when some people are still vaccinated, but not when the school is just back, and it’s autumn and winter.
“Modeling studies done on this mainly show that all dates tend to lead to essentially similar results. Different models have slightly different conclusions.”
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