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What you need to know about recent COVID-19 trends in Massachusetts

 



Coronavirus

“These numbers show why we are vaccinated.”

Healthcare professionals prepare doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at the Boston Medical Center. Adam Grantsman / Bloomberg

The Massachusetts COVID-19 trend seems to be heading in the wrong direction, albeit slightly.

Infections and even hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have begun to increase since the weekend of July 4. And state officials have revealed that there have been thousands of breakthrough infections and even dozens of deaths among those who took shots since the deployment began, so vaccination against the disease. Those who received it turned out to be completely immune.

But how vigilant is this recent news?

Health experts and officials emphasize that the number of breakthrough infections is incredibly low and to some extent expected given the very high number of people vaccinated in Massachusetts. doing.

And although a slight rise in the case comes as the delta variant has National fuel spikesMassachusetts COVID-19 prevalence has not even approached its previous peak so far, especially in under-vaccinated states.

This is what we know:

About those groundbreaking cases

In reality, breakthrough infections occur, but they are extremely rare. And it is even more rare for vaccinated individuals to be hospitalized or die of COVID-19.

As of July 10, 4,450 vaccinated people in Massachusetts had tested positive for COVID-19 since the deployment began this winter, according to the state public health service.

That’s just over 0.1% of the 4,195,844 people in Massachusetts who were fully vaccinated at the time, or 1 in 1000.

The overwhelming majority of cases in that small faction were not serious.

A total of 79 vaccinated people have died in Massachusetts, with 303 (6.8%) of breakthrough infections associated with hospitalization, according to DPH officials.

In other words, the latest data show that 0.007 percent (7 in 100,000) of fully vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts are hospitalized. Similarly, less than 2 out of 100,000 people die.

For comparison, COVID-19 has killed a total of 5,057 people in Massachusetts since early January. Of these, 4,986 were unvaccinated.

“These numbers show why we are vaccinated,” said Todd Elerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. Said Boston herald this week.

“It’s actually incredible,” Ellerin said. “That’s amazing.”

State officials reflect that sentiment. Given the high vaccination rates in Massachusetts, the DPH is a breakthrough as the three US-approved COVID-19 vaccines (Pfizer, Modana, Johnson & Johnson) are not 100% effective in preventing infection. Cases are expected to be seen. Even if they are very effective.

“I think it really matches what we expect,” said Dr. Shira Delon, an epidemiologist at Tufts University. Told WCVB.. “The larger the vaccinated population, the more cases of vaccinated people will be.”

State officials have emphasized that the vaccine is the best defense against COVID-19.

Evidence is in the state’s overall COVID-19 rate, which has dropped dramatically since the beginning of the year when vaccine deployment began — even if almost all restrictions were lifted. Hospitalization has decreased by 96 percent since the beginning of January. The average number of deaths from COVID-19 was over 70 per day, but it has decreased to less than 1 per day.

“These results provide more evidence that vaccines are not only good at preventing serious illness and death, but also good,” said Harvard University Chan School of Public Health professor and former Massachusetts. State Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Koh said. Said Boston Globe..

“We need to accelerate immunization momentum in the future, especially in light of the growing national threat from Delta variants,” Ko added.

Unexpected rise in the overall case

Although breakthrough infections may have been expected, Massachusetts has also seen an unexpected increase in overall COVID-19 rates over the past week.

Since June 25, the average number of new positive COVID-19 tests in the state has almost doubled from 64 to 122. DPH officials reported 208 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, the first day of more than 200 cases. From early June, When the state test rate was almost one-third higher.

Over the same period, the state’s positive rate more than doubled from 0.31 percent to 0.72 percent.

Following a steady decline this spring, hospitalizations also increased from a minimum of 80 state-wide COVID-19 patients on July 4 to 102 as of Tuesday. Experts have long stated that deaths lag behind other indicators, but deaths continue to decline on average to less than one per day.

All rates remain very low and are lower than ever through all the ups and downs of the pandemic from March 2020 to this May, but the trend is a national delta variant from the beginning of July. Looks like a rise in fuel. ..

It is unclear exactly how much of the recent rise in Massachusetts is the cause Delta variantAccording to authorities, this is the most contagious repeat of the virus.

Nationally, it rose from just 3% of new cases in mid-May to more than 31% of new cases by mid-June, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As of June 22, Delta accounted for 10% of new cases in Massachusetts, according to the CDC, but the data is now nearly a month old, before the current rise. Thing.

Cassandra Pierre, an epidemiologist at Boston Medical Center and a professor at Boston University, said the recent overall increase in cases is “somewhat concerned” given the nationwide rise of delta variants.

“There is some data showing that the delta variant is involved in more hospitalizations than the previous predominant variant. The jury asks if it is more toxic (may cause serious illness). While considering whether, COVID-related deaths began to be seen. Mortality rates are rising in some of the hardest-hit states, “Pierre told Boston by email.

“That is, we need to pay attention to the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in age, race and ethnic demographics (especially in poorly vaccinated communities) so that small people are not surprised. The summer soared, “she said.

While the expert has Predict a mild seasonal rise In the case of COVID-19 this fall, Pierre says the recent increase is faster than expected. She said the rainy weather on the weekend of July 4th could have increased indoor gatherings and activities.

According to DPH guidance, unvaccinated residents should continue to wear masks when they are near people outside the household, especially indoors. Due to the Delta variant, some cities and organizations have extended their mask guidance to all individuals, regardless of vaccination status, but in Massachusetts still low case rates have not caused such a move. Hmm.

State officials say there is no breakdown of recent infections in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. This is because data on breakthrough cases are reported separately (health providers report all positive tests directly to the state, but breakthrough cases are reported first) CDC And to state officials).

However, previous data on breakthrough infections Obtained by Herald A request for public records suggests that there were 543 groundbreaking cases between June 19th and July 10th. This means that about 30% of the 1,809 positive cases reported by the state during the same period and 70% of new cases were in the minority. Residents who are not completely vaccinated.

More than 83% of adults in Massachusetts have been vaccinated at least once, but vaccination rates remain fluctuating. Approximately 50% in black and Latino residents, and in many low-income communities..

Pierre says that even the most under-vaccinated community in Boston has a positive COVID-19 test rate. Remains about 1%.. Still, Pierre said these gaps were worrisome as hospitalizations moved to younger demographics in their 20s and 40s, and the proportion of those groups with severe symptoms increased.

“Given the significant racial disparity in vaccination in our patient population, this is concerned that as COVID slowly spreads in our community, young people of color will bear the brunt of infection. “She said.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2021/07/15/massachusetts-covid-breakthrough-infections-uptick/

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