Why COVID-19 is probably not eradicated

In Australia there are 738 active cases of COVID-19. Only 62 are hospitalized.

The situation in New Zealand is similar, with 136 active cases, of which only two are hospitalized.

Can we continue this path and eliminate COVID-19 from Australia and New Zealand?

Control-> Eliminate-> Eradicate

To answer this question, we first need to understand the implications of removal in the context of disease and how it differs from control and eradication.

Disease control is when there is a reduction in the incidence and prevalence of disease (new vs. current cases) as a result of public health measures. Reduction does not mean zero case, but an acceptable level.

Unfortunately, there is no consensus on what is acceptable. It varies from illness to jurisdiction.

As an example, only 81 measles cases were reported in Australia in 2017. Measles is considered to be under control in Australia.

Conversely, measles is not considered regulated in New Zealand, which occurred last year. From 1 January 2019 to 21 February 2020, 2194 measles cases were recorded in New Zealand.

For the eradication of disease, there should be zero new cases of disease in defined geographical areas. There is no defined period that needs to be maintained. It usually depends on the latency of the disease (the time between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms).

Relation: The latest news on coronaviruses

For example, the South Australian Government is looking for a 28-day absence of new cases of coronavirus (twice the incubation period of COVID-19) before it’s ruled out.

Even if the disease is eradicated, we will continue to implement intervention measures such as border control and surveillance tests to prevent recurrence.

For example, Australia has successfully removed rubella (German measles). However, we maintain a vaccination schedule and disease surveillance program.

Finally, eradication of disease is when there is zero disease incidence worldwide as a result of deliberate efforts to get rid of the disease. No intervention is required in this scenario.

The only two infectious diseases declared to have been eradicated by the World Health Organization are smallpox in 1980 and rinderpest in 2011 (a bovine disease caused by the paramyxovirus).

Polio is nearing eradication, with only 539 cases reported worldwide in 2019.

Guinea worm disease is also imminent, with a total of 19 human cases occurring between January and June 2019 in two African countries.

At what stage is COVID-19?

COVID-19 is managed in Australia and New Zealand.

Importantly, in Australia, Effective playback (Reff) is close to zero. Leff’s estimates are based on mathematical modeling not published in New Zealand, but in New Zealand the Leff could be close to zero.

Reff is the average number of people infected by each person. So an average of 2 reflexes means that each person with COVID-19 infects the other 2.

If Reff is greater than 1, the fashion will continue. If Reff is equal to 1, it’s endemic (that is, it complains forever). And if the reflex is less than 1, the epidemic is extinct.

So we may be on the road to eradication.

Almost all import cases were found, quarantined and contact tracked in both Australia and New Zealand. Based on extensive community testing, there are very few cases of community infection.

The next step in both countries is surveillance, with randomized testing in selected groups. Hopefully, these results could show that COVID-19 has been eliminated.

COVID-19 will never be eradicated

To be eradicated, the disease must be preventable and treatable. At the moment, there is nothing to prevent COVID-19 (such as a vaccine) or a proven treatment (such as an antiviral drug).

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is easily mutated even if a vaccine becomes available. Therefore, it becomes a situation like influenza, and it is necessary to make an annual vaccination against circulating strains.

Another factor that makes COVID-19 very difficult, if not impossible, to eradicate is the fact that many infected people show little or no symptoms, and people are infected with no symptoms. The fact that there is a possibility. This makes the case very difficult to detect.

At least for smallpox, the body was covered with pustules (a swelling that contained fluid), so it was easy to see if you were infected.

So while there may be ample road to eradication in Australia and New Zealand, eradication is another ball game.

This article was first displayed conversation And will be reissued with permission