Toronto-New data predict that the number of people with dementia will triple to an estimated 152 million worldwide by 2050.
To make this prediction, researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment have come from the Global Disease Burden Study, a comprehensive set of global health trend estimates from 1999 to 2019. I analyzed the data. They also incorporated information about trends in risk factors for dementia into their studies.
They found that the number of cases of dementia worldwide increased from an estimated 57 million in 2019 to 152 million in 2050, with the largest increase in prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and I found that it was predicted to be in the Middle East.
According to their analysis, the projected increase may be primarily due to population growth and aging, but the relative importance of these two factors varies from region to region of the world, they say.
With regard to aging, the National Institute on Aging estimates that people over the age of 65 will account for 16% of the world’s population by 2050. This is an increase from 8% in 2010.
Interestingly, the team found that a positive trend in access to education around the world should reduce the prevalence of dementia by 6.2 million cases. Expected trends in smoking, high body mass index (BMI), and hyperglycemia are expected to counteract and increase prevalence by 6.8 million cases.
In summary, the researchers said these conflicting tendencies are approaching “balancing each other.”
“These estimates will give policy makers and decision makers a better understanding of the expected increase in the number of individuals with dementia and the drivers of these increases in a particular geographic environment.” Said Emanicols, a researcher at the Institute for Health Index Evaluation. Said in a release at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
She expects a significant increase in the number of people with dementia, a “extremely important need” for research on disease-modifying treatments and effective low-cost interventions for the prevention or delay of dementia. Should be emphasized.
Using the same dataset, Nichols and her team could also estimate that Alzheimer’s disease mortality increased by 38% between 1990 and 2019.
“Without effective treatments to stop, delay or prevent Alzheimer’s disease and all dementia, this number will grow beyond 2050, with individuals, caregivers and health systems around the world We will continue to influence the government, “says Maria C. Carrillo, chief scientific officer of the Alzheimer’s Disease Association. Said in the release.
“In addition to treatments, it is important to identify cultural interventions that reduce the risk of dementia through lifestyle factors such as education, diet and exercise.”
Nichols and her team presented their findings at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference (AAIC) 2021 in Denver on Tuesday.
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