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How many people do I need to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2?Almost everyone

 


The rise of the Delta variant means that the competition to immunize the world’s population has become a new urgency.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is by far the most popular variant today. In the United States When In the world..

Delta too Quite contagious Than other popular SARS-CoV-2 mutants. This is important because the transmission rate is directly proportional to the basic reproduction number R.0, From there Mathematical epidemiologists derive the number of people who have to be vaccinated To reach Herd immunity..

Delta has raised the threshold for herd immunity, and now we have to vaccinate far more people than previously needed to contain Covid-19.

How many more? The basic formula for the immune threshold is:

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Threshold = 1-1 / R0..

Last fall, experts estimated that about 70% of the population needs to be immunized against SARS-CoV-2.With Modified version of the formula, The vaccine can further adjust the fact that it prevents infection in only about 90% of cases (almost all cases prevent serious illness, but these numbers are for Pfizer mRNA vaccine), 74% A new immune threshold is reached. However, this all corresponds to about 3 reproduction numbers. Delta is about twice as transparent. We conclude that about 93% of the population needs to be protected using the modified formula. That is, only 7% can remain unvaccinated.

This estimate, as scientists say, is a “first estimate.”I used to Three misconceptions about herd immunity:

  1. Misconception: Herd immunity is just the turning point of the epidemic. In fact, the concept of herd immunity is primarily about protection from new exposures.
  2. Misconception: Herd immunity marks the end of a pandemic. In reality, herd immunity is just the beginning of the end.
  3. Misconception: Reaching herd immunity means that the population can return to normal. In reality, it depends on what you mean by “ordinary.”

Professor Mark Lipsic Why is Harvard University’s Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics a standard formula? A little too simple..

Warning aside, how many vaccinated people need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity (93% of the total population)? People who cannot be vaccinated will always be in the population. Currently, this includes children and people with certain allergies. There are about 48 million children under the age of 12 in the United States, which is about 15% of the total population. This means that everyone who is eligible to get the vaccine is needed, as 15% is more than 7%.

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Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2021/07/28/how-many-people-do-we-need-to-vaccinate-against-sars-cov-2-just-about-everybody/

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