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Covid surge creates a fertile basis for more dangerous new variants

 


The latest information on the coronavirus pandemic

Scientists say the world has entered a dangerous new phase of a pandemic as the third wave of coronavirus creates fertile breeding grounds for new variants that are more infectious and potentially vaccine-resistant. Is warning.

World Health Organization surges in Covid-19 worldwide 8% increase in new case reports It increased by 21% in just one week, similar to last year’s pandemic heyday with four highly infectious viral variants.

According to virologists, the Sars-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid-19 has already evolved into a more threatening form that has so far evaded detection because it has not yet infected a sufficient number of people. It may be.

“Because the virus has just migrated to humans and is adapting to new hosts, we should have been surprised at the evolution of the mutants many times,” said Nick Roman, a professor of microbial genomics. University of Birmingham, UK. “We have been humbled by this virus before and cannot confidently predict what will happen in the future.”

According to the WHO, global infectious diseases have skyrocketed to an average of 540,000 people per day, with an average of about 70,000 deaths per day.

In addition to spreading to low-incidence countries, new variants are emerging in highly immunized populations, such as other means of controlling infection, especially in the United States and most of Europe, where wear is masked and social contact is restricted. May settle in. I lifted it.

Diagram showing how mutations can be used to track the spread of a virus

The most serious category, WHO’s “variant of concern,” is named after the Greek letters alpha, beta, gamma, and delta. All four emerged in late 2020, but it took some time for the more contagious virus to spread more widely. The next “mutant of interest” category (more suspected of being contagious or vaccine resistant) includes eta, iota, kappa, and lambda.

Scientists say that further evolution of the virus is unavoidable because the genetic code can be altered by errors in the copying mechanism during replication. Most mutations are neutral, but they can also increase the “fitness” of the virus, making it more susceptible to infection in human cells.

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s Covid-19 Technical Lead, said: “Some mutations allow the virus to attach to cells more easily and thus infect it.”

Delta was about twice as infectious as the first recorded alpha variant in the United Kingdom and was 40% more infectious than the previous form of virus first detected in China.

According to Roman at the University of Birmingham, the reproduction number R0, which measures infectivity, is estimated to be around 3 for the original Wuhan virus and close to 6 for the Delta. That is, the average person infected with Delta in a population unprotected by vaccination, prior infection, and social distance measurements will pass it on to the other six.

Healthcare professionals manage Sinovac shots at a vaccination center located in a shopping mall in Tangerang, Indonesia.

Healthcare workers manage Sinovac shots at a vaccination center in a shopping mall in Tangerang, Indonesia © Bloomberg

Most mutant strains of concern or interest have accumulated about 20 individual mutations in the 30,000 biochemical characters that make up the genetic code. Molecular studies by virologists such as Ravi Gupta, a professor of microbiology at the University of Cambridge, aim to better understand how they affect the behavior of Sars-Cov-2.

Gupta said that changes in peplomers that allow the virus to more effectively invade human cells appear to be most important, but more research is needed. “I know some of the related mutations, but I don’t know the big picture,” he added.

Among the existing variants, the beta that emerged in South Africa appears to be the most reinfectious to the vaccinated ones. Fear of beta led Britain this month, putting France in a special “amber plus” travel category. French experts say the UK is miscalculating as Delta is rapidly replacing beta as a major variant of France.

The beta rate of French cases dropped from about 20% in early June to 2%. Nextstrain database.. “The beta variant has been replaced by the delta variant everywhere in the co-circulation,” said Sylvievan der Werf, a molecular geneticist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris.

The exact process by which the virus acquires a series of mutations and qualifies as a new variant remains a mystery, but it can also occur within individuals who suffer from long-term infection.

Gupta et al. Studyed Cambridge patients with impaired immune systems. In this patient, the virus replicated for more than 3 months before dying. The series of mutations evolved similar to those observed with the alpha variant, but this one variant did not infect anyone else.

“Some data from Brazil suggest that gamma may have evolved stepwise through intermediate morphologies during the first wave of the pandemic. [than] Oliver Pybus, a professor of evolution and infectious diseases at Oxford University, said:

It is still unclear how much Sars-Cov-2 can evolve as it adapts to a host population that is increasingly immunized by infection and vaccination.

Most viruses that survive in human populations eventually become less virulent for decades or centuries. Some coronaviruses that cause mild cold-like symptoms are now believed to have begun to cause more serious illnesses, but scientists warn that this is not an unavoidable process. increase. ..

“The more the virus circulates, the more it changes,” WHO’s Kerkhove warned. “Delta is not the last concern we hear about.”

Greek letters may not be enough to cover them all.

Additional report by Anna Gross in Paris

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