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Sea level rise forecast exceeds IPCC estimates
Maritime executive
It’s a sequel.
05-10-2020 08:08:27
According to an international survey led by the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore, global mean sea level rise could exceed 2100 at 1 meter and 2300 at 5 meters if global emissions targets are not met. I knew it was.
This study used forecasts of over 100 international experts on global mean sea level changes under two climate scenarios: low and high emissions. In a scenario where global warming was limited to 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels, experts estimated a rise of 0.5 meters by 2100 and 0.5 to 2 meters by 2300. By 2100, we expect a significant rise of 0.6-1.3 meters and by 2300 1.7-5.6 meters.
Predictions of sea-level rise exceed previous estimates by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“We know that the Earth will rise further in the future,” said Andra Garner, co-author of Dr. Andra Garner, assistant professor of environmental sciences at Rowan University in the United States. “However, there is a clear difference in the amount of low-emission sea level rise expert projects compared to high emissions, which gives great hope for the future and avoids the more serious effects of sea level rise. It provides a strong motivation to act now to do. “
The survey is based on the informed opinions of 106 sea experts. The 106 experts who participated in the survey were among the most active publishers of scientific sea level surveys (at least 6 papers published in peer-reviewed journals since 2014) identified from major publication databases. Was chosen because it was chosen by.
In response to open-ended questions, climate change experts identified the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as the largest sources of uncertainty. These ice sheets are important indicators of climate change and contribute to sea level rise. Satellite-based measurements show that the ice sheet is melting at an accelerated rate. However, experts also noted that the magnitude and impact of sea-level rise could be limited by successful reductions in emissions.
Professor Benjamin Houghton, chairman of the NTU’s Asian Environmental School, led the study published in the Nature Partner Journals Climate and Atmospheric Science. The joint project included researchers from the University of Hong Kong, Maynooth University (Ireland), Durham University (UK), Rowan University, Tufts University (USA), and Potsdam Institute for Climate Change (Germany).
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