Is Covid-19 running in the UK? | Coronavirus

JJohn Edmunds has been at the center of the Covid-19 pandemic results since the first case occurred in January 2020. A member of the government’s scientific advisory group, Sage, a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine has consistently warned the Minister about the threat posed by the disease.

These risks are often obvious by their nature. But today, 18 months after the advent of Covid-19, he believes the country is at the point of greatest uncertainty about the future of the pandemic.

“At any other point in the epidemic, it was easy to predict what would happen,” he said. Observer.. “But at this point, I think it’s really hard to understand what happened and what will happen in the long run. At this point, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the disease.

The fact that we’ve been in a pandemic for a year and a half and we’re still wrong about Covid-19 may seem surprising. After all, in the meantime, we have developed a powerful vaccine to protect ourselves and identified a very important drug to treat patients. Science has accomplished wonders.

However, researchers are still uncertain about how Covid-19 will make progress in the UK in the coming months.

The statistics were certainly amazing. First, the number of cases surged in early July. Then they receded and began to fall, and statisticians and scientists continued scrambling to understand the fluctuating numbers. Many contradictory factors have often been proposed to explain the number of cases of Covid.

Did the opening of the company on July 19 have a big impact? Did Euro 2020 drive the virus through British homes and pubs? Is Britain approaching herd immunity? And how did school holidays affect the progression of the illness?

Elucidating these factors and understanding the exact impact of vaccines on society is now a complex and urgent issue. “We can see how bad things happen as the partnership actually begins in September and October and winter approaches,” Edmonds said.

However, there is a clear consensus on one factor. All evidence shows that vaccines currently play an important role in disease management. Had the government opened its society to a completely unprotected population, the daily death toll would now have skyrocketed to thousands. But how far has our protection with vaccines gone?

That’s an important question, and the answer will determine how serious the recurrence of Covid-19 will be in the fall when schools reopen, the weather gets colder, and people head indoors. An important factor is the degree to which the country has achieved herd immunity. In other words, have so many people been infected or vaccinated and therefore immune to the disease that slowed or stopped the viral infection?

“We can run some very simple models to see if the number of cases we saw earlier this month is consistent with effective herd immunity,” said Mark Woolhouse, a professor at the University of Edinburgh. .. And in my opinion, the answer is yes. There are some important warnings, but the bottom line is that those numbers are consistent with the effects of herd immunity. “”

Woolhouse has shown in a recent study by the Office for National Statistics that about 90% of adults in the UK currently carry Covid antibodies, which may allow some immune response to the infection. Is shown. “It’s a very large percentage and can be influential,” he said.

Similarly, Professor Martin Hibard of the London School of Health and Tropical Medicine agreed that herd immunity is becoming a viable outlook. “We’re approaching herd immunity, but I don’t think we’re there yet,” he said.

But if we are approaching this goal, why did the number of cases increase so rapidly in mid-July? What could have caused this massive outbreak in a country that appears to be heading for herd immunity? Scientists point out two important factors: the euro and schools that are closed due to holidays.

“Herd immunity is expected to peak at different times in different parts of the country due to different levels of immunity across the country,” says Edmonds. “But this is not what we have seen. Cases have declined synchronously across the UK. This suggests that external factors were behind it, and it happened nationwide at the same time. That is, “”

And the two most likely candidates are schools to close and “pindemics” that occurred shortly after the euro, he said. In other words, the number of incidents would have skyrocketed in mid-July as a large number of mainly male fans gathered in the pub to watch England play football. This was followed by an increase in contacts who were asked to self-quarantine after being linked to infected fans.

“This episode of self-quarantine happened all over the country at the same time, which seems to have reduced the number of cases,” Edmonds said. “But without the effects of school closures, these are expected to rise again.

“Students no longer take the virus home after being infected with the virus in class. This is likely to help contain the current case and may be done in the summer.”

We are approaching herd immunity, but I don’t think we are there yet

Professor Martin Hibard

This point was supported by Woolhouse. “It’s been three and a half weeks since the peak in Scotland, but the numbers haven’t increased yet, so I’m convinced that the underlying trends are heading in the right direction.”

Professor James Nicesmith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute in Oxford, also believes that the short-term outlook is rosy. “The number of cases seems to be stagnant and is expected to decline slightly during the summer,” he said.

But the problem reoccurs in September, when children return to school, start business, and spend more time indoors.

“We continue to have high levels of infection in the community. Currently, about 1 in 65 people are carriers of the virus, which means that virus levels will not drop significantly by September. “I will,” said Nicesmith. “In these situations, the virus has a good platform to start infecting unprotected people when the conditions are favorable for the spread of the virus.”

This was endorsed by Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds. “I’m worried that even if the number of cases continues to decline, it will increase significantly again in September when school returns.”

One solution proposed by Naismith is to vaccinate 16 and 17 years old throughout the UK. It will protect them from Covid-19 complications that are worse than any vaccine complications they may encounter. It will also bring the population closer to the levels needed to achieve herd immunity.

“I think we’re close to that immunity, but we won’t be perfect in the fall,” he added. “So we need to think about vaccinations at ages 16 and 17. It will help us achieve more comprehensive protection against the virus. In any case, adolescents are about the risks and benefits of vaccination. You can decide for yourself. After all, a 16-year-old Scottish can vote.

Two other mysterious problems are hampering attempts to clarify the national route from the pandemic. New variants and potential reduced vaccine efficacy. Wellcome Trust’s director, Jeremy Farrer, Spike: Virus against people, His new book on pandemics. He argues that the higher the infection rate, the more likely it is that a new variant will be cooked. “That’s most likely the reason why the variants of interest date back to countries with poorly controlled transmissions, such as the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.”

Hibberd reflects these fears. “Hopefully, the virus may not be mutated enough to escape the immunity provided by the vaccine or previous infection,” he said. Observer.. “But the emergence of viruses that evade immunity is a clear possibility. After all, it happens with other viruses like influenza. We need to create a new vaccine against influenza each year, and it is It will be modified a bit and mutated back the following year, and then we have to develop a new vaccine to fight it.

Scientists and pharmaceutical companies are now working on vaccines to address several new variants that appeared last year. For example, the Oxford vaccine team, led by Dame Sarah Gilbert, is working on the first beta vaccine found in South Africa. It is believed that it is most likely to avoid the vaccine.

And then there is the question of vaccine efficacy. Studies have shown that Covid-19 antibodies decrease over time in vaccinated people. This can limit people’s protection against viruses.

According to a study published last week, the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine drops by an average of 6% every two months. These findings suggest that the government may need to establish a booster program for people over the age of 50 to strengthen protection during the winter.

These fears were highlighted last month by the Academy of Medicine report Covid-19: Preparing for the Future. Dame Ann Johnson, President of the Academy, said: “In these situations, respiratory infections such as the flu are expected to actually increase, whereas last year’s lack of exposure may have weakened the immune system.

In addition, the Office for National Statistics estimates that a total of 856,200 people were infected with the Covid virus in the UK during the week leading up to July 24, according to the latest report. This is a very large number.

“Therefore, in the current situation, we are heavily infected with highly contagious variants, whether the overall number increases or decreases slightly. Therefore, the takeaway message is clear. This pandemic is It has not been resolved yet.

“How it unfolds is another matter. There are so many variables involved. In fact, the only thing that is clear is that the situation is very uncertain.”

www.theguardian.com