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Description: How does a pandemic evolve? Some possible scenarios from the study

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Along: Express news service | New Delhi |
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Update: May 12, 2020 5:45:18 am





Coronavirus, coronavirus news, covid 19 tracker, covid 19 india tracker, coronavirus latest news, covid 19 india, coronavirus latest news, coronavirus india, coronavirus india news, coronavirus indrive news, coronavirus india, corona Virus India Latest News, Coronavirus Latest Indian News, Coronavirus Cases, Indian Coronavirus Cases, Coronavirus Lockdowns, Coronavirus India Updates, Coronavirus Indian States, Express Descriptions, India Express One study published in Science predicts that a winter pandemic will likely recur. (Express photo: Pawan Khengre)

For the past few months, the key questions that have been in everyone’s mind have been: COVID-19 Pandemic Will it be performed and the disease will recur seasonally. Two new studies first reported in the New York Times predict the different shapes that the Covid-19 curve can take.

One study published in Science predicts that a winter pandemic will likely recur. Suggests to be long-term or intermittent Avoid crowds By 2022, it may be necessary to ensure that the case load does not exceed emergency medical capabilities.

Another study is a perspective published by the Center for Infectious Diseases Research Policy (CIDRAP). Predicts the various conceptual courses that a pandemic “wave” could take. These are based on historical patterns of past pandemics and the findings of a Science journal article.

Bottom line: The pandemic will not disappear soon. “The broad conclusions of both studies are that SARS-CoV-2 does not go away on its own, and that proper measures can protect its medical capacity, but if immunity of the herd is possible (immunity to herd (I don’t know how long the immunity will last.) For this reason, it may take a while for the virus in the region to be transmitted and for which the control measures have been greatly enhanced. , Months, and maybe years, ”says Mark Lipsic, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. Indian Express, on mail.

Lipsitch is the co-author of both studies. Look at the predictions:

How Social Distance Helps

Science’s study used US time-series data for two other coronavirus infections (OC43 and HKU1) to estimate seasonality and immunity and prepare a model for SARS-CoV-2 infection ..

The graph in Figure 1 is reproduced with minor changes from the Science paper. Chart 1A plots the total number of cases per 10,000 and the prevalence of critical cases over time. The dotted line represents the prevalence threshold for performing / removing social distance measurements, and the blue bar represents the period of social distance. Figure 1B on the right shows the corresponding cumulative evolution of herd immunity.

Charts 1C and 1D should be read in the same way. The difference is that the second pair of charts explains the seasonality of the outbreak, while the first pair does not.

Charts 1A and 1C forecast time series based on the time and stage at which social distance measurements are performed intermittently. On the right (1B and 1D), the corresponding proportion of the population is immunizing over time, towards the herd’s immune threshold. (Source: Science)

“We predict that the winter recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the first and most severe pandemic wave,” the researchers write.

The graph reproduced here is for the current US emergency medical capacity scenario, but Lipsic reveals that this is not an accurate trajectory prediction, even in the US, but an explanation of policy and its broader capabilities. I chose “In other regions, the level of transmission may be different (India seems less contagious than many expect for reasons unclear), has different seasonality, different control policies,” he said. He said.

The graph in Figure 2 shows a conceptual wave scenario. (Source: CIDRAP)

Wave, as a concept

Predicting some scenarios for the future of the pandemic, the CIDRAP perspective summarized these as shown in Figure 2.

Scenario 1: Following the first wave of spring in 2020, a series of small waves repeats in summer, followed by a gradual decline in 2021, consistently over a period of 1-2 years.

Scenario 2: The first wave of spring 2020 will follow, followed by a large wave in the fall or winter of 2020, followed by one or more small waves in 2021.

Scenario 3: The first wave of spring 2020 is followed by a “slow burn” of ongoing infection and case development, but no clear wave pattern. This pattern may vary geographically and may be affected by implemented mitigation measures.

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