Covid-19: Virus eradication is “feasible” but “much less” than smallpox

COVID-19 Although it can be eradicated, experts say it is much more difficult to get rid of the virus than smallpox.

Analysis by the University of Otago (Wellington) Professor Michael Baker and Professor Nick Wilson, Covid-19, Smallpox, Polio It is based on technical, socio-political and economic factors.

smallpox, NS A fatal illness that spoils the appearanceWas declared eradicated in 1980. It is the only virus that affects humans and has been wiped out in history.

Compare viruses using 17 variables, Baker and Wilson found that smallpox has the highest average score for eradication feasibility: 2.7. The average score for Covid-19 was 1.6 and the average score for polio was 1.5.

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Wilson said he would put the eradication of Covid-19 “in the realm of potential” from a technical analysis perspective.

Baker and Wilson examine different factors in ranking the likelihood of eradicating the three diseases, including the availability of safe and effective vaccines, the potential for lifelong immunity, and the impact of public health measures. did. Border control When Avoid crowds..

It also included an effective infection control message by the government, political and general concerns about infection, and general acceptance of infection control measures.

To date, the World Health Organization has declared Only two diseases officially eradicated: With smallpox Rinderpest, A fatal disease of cattle.

NS Last reported case Smallpox occurred in Somalia in 1977 and the last rinderpest in Kenya in 2001.

The vaccination program is responsible for eradicating smallpox and two of the three polio strains globally.

Several other diseases are about to be eradicated without the use of vaccines, and China has recently become the 40th country in the world. Received malaria-free certification..

Wilson said while the focus was on the need to reach Herd immunity to overcome Covid-19, Herd immunity may not be essential to fight it.

For example, smallpox has been eradicated by a “ring vaccination” program for infected contacts.

Inadequate vaccination in some countries, high cost of vaccination of the world’s population, and the emergence of highly infectious mutants make it more difficult to eradicate Covid-19 than smallpox or polio. There is a possibility of becoming.

However, the virus will eventually reach its limit of ability to mutate, and new vaccines are likely to be created to combat evolving strains, Wilson said.

Many Asia-Pacific countries, including New Zealand and Taiwan, have achieved and maintained a long-term removal of Covid-19. This is a “proof of concept” that eradication is technically possible.

“If all factors are taken into account, the benefits of eradicating Covid-19 can outweigh the costs, even if it takes years to eradicate and there is a significant risk of failure,” Baker said. I did.

Baker and Wilson said their work was preliminary and required a more detailed analysis of the “feasibility and desirability” of attempting to eradicate Covid-19 globally.

Analysis is Was published in BMJ Global Health.

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