Delta variant, delayed vaccination suggests fourth COVID-19 wave to hit Hamilton in the fall: Public Health-Hamilton

Hamilton’s public health says the city is set to make a fourth wave COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) Autumn pandemic due to increased “interpersonal” contact in the state’s current resumption strategy.

At a meeting of the Health Committee on Wednesday, Michelle Baird, head of epidemiology and infectious disease management, said in the latest forecasts. Delta variant The main factor among the people in the city is that they are not completely vaccinated.

“This is, to some extent, related to resumption and an increase in the number of contacts between people,” Baird told the councilor.

In the worst-case scenario, a drop in vaccination campaigns and relaxation of public action next week could result in nearly 20,000 more cases, 700 hospitalizations and 70 new deaths by the end of the year.

However, public health epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson said he would avoid nearly 15,000 new cases in the next four months if public health measures were maintained at the current 70% immunization rate for people over the age of 12. He said he could.

“This means maintaining current public health measures, including masking and distance, in all settings, at least until October,” Sanderson said. “And, for example, slowly reduce masking and distance to about half of these measures.”

Earlier this week, Ontario’s chief health doctor, Dr. Keeran Moore, said COVID-19 restrictions and blockades would soon be in the hands of the public health sector, not the state.

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As of Wednesday, Baird told councilors that the city does not yet have details from the state on how such regional obligations work.

On Monday, Mayor Fred Eisenberger suggested that restrictions could be added if the number of incidents went out of control in the fourth wave, given the possibility of a transfer of power.

“That is, you know what science is saying. If you need to return here to Hamilton for some reason, we support them because of the high positive rate or the wrong number of cases. I’m going to do it. Steps, “said Eisenberger.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Hamilton continued to increase on Wednesday, with public health revealing 38 new cases and 209 active cases in the last 24 hours. This is the first time the city has exceeded 200 since mid-June.

Tests returned from the Ontario Institute for COVID-19 positives rose again for the third straight week from 2.40 percent reported last Wednesday to 3.3 percent.

The 7-day average of new cases in the city is also increasing daily from 25 to 29.

Over 82% of the city’s active cases are under the age of 50, which corresponds to the same demographic delay in vaccination.

Compared to many nearby public health units such as Toronto, Waterloo and Niagara, Hamilton has a smaller number of first shots with people under the age of 30.

As of last Friday, only about 67% of people under the age of 30 had their first shot, below the average for the same group of states that checked in at 72.9%.

Niagara is also a low rate in the same age group, with only 63.8% of people under the age of 30 taking at least at the end of last week.

As of August 11, Hamilton has received more than 750,000 COVID-19 vaccines, with the majority of shots from Pfizer BioNTech exceeding 500,000.

Over 200,000 are Moderna jabs and the rest are from AstraZeneca.

At the peak of the city’s vaccination program in July, about 9,000 shots per day became Hamiltonian’s arm. The current price in early August is currently only 1,700 per day.

According to public health, pockets around Flamborough’s Lower Central Hamilton, Red Hill Valley Parkway, and Link continue to be vaccinated, as there are approximately 8,000 to 12,000 residents in each area who have not received their first shots. Is the focus of.

Authorities estimate that approximately 15,000 or more Hamiltonians will need to fire to achieve an initial dose range of 80%, and an additional 37,000 or more will be needed to achieve a complete vaccination of 75%. increase.

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