A typical “vaccine controversy” person is a 42-year-old Ontario woman who votes for liberal: Abacus Polling

If science is right and I trust it, we are turning the last corner of this pandemic, at least in terms of what we can do in Canada to keep ourselves safe. We are unlikely to stumble, but every day we see examples of how we can do it.

I recently read a story about a conservative hotline radio host known for vaccine skepticism. Just before COVID-19 killed him, he told people he made a mistake not to get vaccinated.

How does this happen in advanced societies? How do some people read that today’s infectious diseases occur almost exclusively among unvaccinated people? Do you still think it’s a bad idea to get a jab? How can parents question whether their children’s teachers should be vaccinated?

Since the first vaccine against COVID-19 first appeared last fall, our team at Abacus Data has been studying public opinion about vaccination. After more than 30,000 interviews on this subject, we are standing here.All our work is shared as a contribution to the union of organizations Work together to promote vaccination..

Based on Canada’s 29.5 million adult population, the latest results show that 7% or 2.1 million adults are hesitant, and the same number completely refuses COVID-19 vaccination.

Understanding how to increase vaccine acceptance begins with admitting that those who hesitate and those who refuse share some similarities, but otherwise they are quite different.

Let’s start with “vaccine repellent”. People who say “I’m happy but want to wait a little longer” or “Rather not, but can be persuaded”.

The number of vaccine repellents today is much lower than it was a few months ago and could be even lower after a month. However, hesitation has fallen from 21% in May to 7% today, but has been slowing down in recent weeks.

Still, based on the attitude of the hesitant, it is quite possible that it will be 90% of fully vaccinated adults. It could probably be 1-2 points higher than that.

It is not the conspiracy theorists who are hesitant. They are not angry with the world. They don’t think COVID-19 is a hoax. They are not radical left or right — 61 percent of them say they are in the center of the spectrum. Two-thirds have higher education. They may be timid, but they are not stupid.

Almost half (46 percent) of them live in Ontario, and more than half (59 percent) of them are women. A quarter was born outside Canada. Their average age is 42 years, and some are between 30 and 44 years. If they vote in today’s federal elections, 35% will vote for liberals, 25% for conservatives, 17% for NDP, and 9% for green. This is about the same as the overall voting intent of the entire population.

However, there is less trust in the government than those who have been vaccinated. They also say they try to avoid prescriptions, hate putting unnatural things in their bodies, and 83% are reluctant to get vaccinated. Most people are worried that the COVID-19 vaccine hasn’t actually been tested for a long time.

A little less than half dislike needles, and 43% think that if someone else is vaccinated, they don’t need to be vaccinated.

One-third say doctors can persuade them, and one-quarter say they can make friends and family. Similar numbers say they will be vaccinated if they can easily attend or travel to the event.

In short, many hesitant people lack confidence in the government and vaccines, but they still show that the right messages, information and incentives make them decide on vaccination.

Vaccine rejecters are in another situation. They are dissatisfied with the direction of the world and Canada.

Three-quarters (73%) of them think COVID-19 is hoax or highly exaggerated, but only 33% of those who hesitate buy the argument.

Two-thirds (69 percent) of them aren’t worried about getting COVID-19 at all (only 27 percent of those who hesitate feel this way). Two-thirds (65%) say that if they are infected with COVID-19, they will not actually get sick (only 40% of those who hesitate agree).

Forty percent of rejecters do not trust their doctors, but only 17% of those who hesitate feel that way. Most Canadians don’t trust Donald Trump or Fox News, but the more they do, the more likely they are to avoid getting vaccinated. Of the complete vaxxed, 11% trust Fox and Trump, while 28% hesitate and 40% reject.

There are some similarities between the hesitant group and the rejecting group. Over 85% of both groups dislike the idea that the government teaches how to live their lives. Those who hesitate and those who refuse prefer to avoid prescriptions and vaccines and rely on the body’s natural defenses.

So where does this leave us?

Most denials will probably not be vaccinated unless it is too expensive or inconvenient to not be vaccinated. If they have never been afraid of illness, they will not be afraid. If they haven’t been persuaded by peers or medical professionals, that probably won’t change. Only 6% said doctors could change their minds, and only 3% said their friends and family could change.

Most people who are hesitant may be vaccinated at some point this year. For some people, especially those with unique cultural group perspectives and health concerns, the hard-working work done by public health agencies and vaccine outreach teams like This is Our Shot and 19to Zero It makes a difference. Even if it seems slow to others, the work is essential and working.

Some hesitate will accept lots of rewards and prizes, but not being vaccinated can be returned as a limitation of previously enjoyed experience or for vaccinated people. You may need a firmer, clearer and more lasting nudge to do so. Unvaccinated people are vaccinated because they consider them free-riders who are reluctant to play their part in protecting the community, the economy, and Canadian children who have not yet been vaccinated. Being absent is costly and probably stigmatized.

I do not encourage polarization. It already exists and the weight of the majority judgment will be felt within 7 percent.

Vaccination of Canadians against COVID-19 has completely relieved some of the most important differences between the United States and Canada in terms of political culture. Most Canadians relied on the government to overcome this pandemic, but the United States reminded us how deep and widespread aversion to government involvement is in their culture. rice field.

Our media provided some weird takes, but nothing resembled the role played by conservative talk radio, or Fox News and similar style media platforms.

There are leaders who oppose masks and vaccines, but he has failed to win a single seat anywhere in the country, including the ones he has held for many years. The United States sets itself apart from politicians who are pushing for legislation that encourages COVID-19 madness.

After immersing himself in this subject for almost a year and digesting more data than any other single subject in almost 40 years in polls, optimism for me from both a vaccination and our point of view. Ability to count as a person (almost) together.

It’s not perfect, unnecessary lives are lost, psychological tensions continue, and millions of people are suffering financially. However, there are many ways this can be exacerbated if it helps to compare with other options.

For rejecters, it seems to result in a serious lack of confidence in government, doctors, vaccines, and the direction of the world. For those who are hesitant, it is a matter of self-confidence, and in some cases fine-tuning infringements on messages, incentives, and flexibility of life as an innocent person.

Bruce Anderson has been a prominent pollster, communications counselor and political analyst in Canada for many years. Early in his career, he was involved in both the Progressive Conservative and Liberal campaigns, but is no longer working in any party. For several years he has been a regular member of CBC’s popular At Issue panel and is now a “Good Talk” with Peter Mansbridge and Chantal Eberle, and every Wednesday on the Peter Mansbridge Bridge Podcast “With the Mirror of Smoke.” We are doing two podcasts of “Truth”. He is Chairman of Abacus Data and Summa Communications and a partner of Spark Advocacy. He is co-chair of Faster Together, a volunteer initiative that works with more than 270 organizations across the country to promote vaccination against COVID.