Are you mainly an infant because of endemic disease?

August 12, 2021-Researchers predict SARS-CoV-2 can become endemic and mainly infect children, which poses a risk from the elderly infant They are too young to be previously exposed or vaccinated.

Similar beta experience coronavirus Modeling across many countries and age groups has also allowed researchers to predict what COVID-19 will look like in 1, 10, and 20 years.

“We are in the midst of a virgin Pandemic,’ the term [that] Epidemiologists use it when the virus has never been seen before, “said senior author Dr. Ottar Bjornstad. Medscape Medical News. The novelty of COVID-19 measles He says when smallpox was first introduced, or when smallpox first came to the Americas.

There is nothing certain, but US and Norwegian researchers have found a general consensus between the models. The most likely situation is not to eliminate COVID-19, but to move to a global endemic disease.

“We don’t have the data yet-everything is so new,” said J. Lloyd & Dorothy For Hack, chair of epidemiology at University Park, Pennsylvania State University, prominent in entomology and biology. Says professor Bjornstad.

NS study Published online on August 11th Science Advances.

If the prediction holds, most adults acquire immunity through vaccination or multiple exposures. Two circulating beta coronaviruses are “strong Child cold, “Bjornstadsays ..” We are exposed to the cold virus many times during our lifetime — and through re-exposure [infections] It’s calmer.

“Like some of the previous pandemics, the death toll during the pandemic was horrifying,” says Bjornstad. SARS-CoV-2 may continue to put older people at the highest risk, but “my colleagues and I think this is very unlikely.”

Modeling makes sense

“The influenza virus that caused the pandemic a century ago is now prevalent as a seasonal virus. COVID-19 will also become endemic in the future and can affect the population primarily without previous exposure. There is a sex. Immunity “For Infectious Diseases,” agrees Dr. Sindu Mohandas, MD, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Los Angeles Children’s Hospital.

“It’s also important to remember that we have something that is much more effective. vaccination The availability and efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine in future infants with COVID-19 over influenza can have a significant impact on the progression of the disease.

“There are many cycles, and children and young adults also have many cycles, which now really help the pandemic,” says Bjornstad. .. Researchers believe that as the severity of COVID-19 is generally lower among children, the overall burden of the disease decreases as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic.

“There are some cases of serious illness in that age group, but they are very rare,” he says.

“There is an increasing likelihood that SARS-CoV-2 will become an endemic, perhaps seasonal virus, rather than being eradicated. Recognizing this contingency, this article is about what the future holds. Provides age-based modeling of the virus, “says Taylor Healed. Sargent, MD.

“It makes sense for children to be the most susceptible group to SARS-CoV-2 because adults can develop. Immunity Through infectious diseases and vaccinations, but the age group of children is constantly being repopulated with a naive population, “says Heald Sargent, an infectious disease doctor at Lully Children’s Hospital in Chicago.

History lesson

Past pandemics of respiratory illness show that the highest-risk age group can change over time. For example, the 1889 and 1890 flu epidemics, also known as the Asian or Russian flu epidemics, killed about one million people.

Most of the deaths were adults over the age of 70.

This pandemic may have been caused by the appearance of HCoV-OC43 humans coronavirus.. “Currently, it is an endemic, mild, recurrent cold virus that primarily affects children aged 7 to 12 months,” Bjornstad said in a news release.

Calculation with some warnings

Bjornstad et al. Surveyed the disease burden in 11 countries and regions, including the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, China and Brazil, and explained the differences in demographics, including age.

“This is certainly a good statistical model aimed at predicting the progression of COVID-19 disease in different populations. Ability to explain different things. Immunity, Demographics, and social mix can make it especially useful, “says Mohandas.

“But it is difficult to apply at this time because it deals with so many unknowns related to COVID-19. This can be much higher as we learn about the duration of immunity and the severity of subsequent infections. There is sex. It is an effective tool. “

The limitations of this study include factors that “cannot be explained by any model,” says Held-Sargent. For example, “A variant, such as Delta, that can change the course significantly may be developed. [a] Transition from pandemic to endemic. Although unlikely to be eradicated, the best chance to control it is for SARS-CoV-2 to vaccinate everyone. “

In February 2020, people still had hope for containment and eradication of SARS-CoV-2, such as SARS-1, says Bjornstad. Cruel now. “

Bjornstad generally says that the endemic coronavirus does not change over time as quickly as possible during the first pandemic. Due to previous exposures, they tend to be non-fatal as well.

“They literally cause a mortality rate of 0.0001%,” he says.

This study was supported by the Hack Institute for Life Sciences at Penn State University and the Norwegian Research Council.