Health
BC is on track for record new COVID-19 cases, hospitalization by September: Scientists
new COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) According to an independent group of scientists and data experts monitoring the pandemic in British Columbia, the incident “immediately” hits the eclipse record if no urgent action is taken to control the infection. I’m heading towards it.
NS BCCOVID-19 Modeling Group We published the latest report on Wednesday, This also warned that children would be disproportionately affected by the growing fourth wave.
BCCOVID-19 Modeling Group.
BCCOVID-19 Modeling Group
A report produced by UBC, SFU, and UVic experts concludes that a state vaccination rate of 90% of the population is not enough to curb the surge.
According to the report, the number of cases in British Columbia is increasing exponentially, doubling every nine days and increasing in all health authorities.
The authors warn that without action to control infection, new cases could exceed the third wave highs in April by September and continue to grow rapidly throughout the fall.
Children are of particular concern because the Delta variant helps spread COVID among unvaccinated individuals.
Children under the age of 10 make up 9% of British Columbia residents, but more than one-third of the unvaccinated population, according to the report.
As COVID-19 regulations are relaxed and the community grows, it warns that “infections in schools can increase exponentially if no controls are taken.”
It also argued Previous allegations from state authorities that the case was “separated” from hospitalizationPlease note that the proportion of cases eventually admitted to the hospital was stable throughout 2021.
“Most cases and hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals, and asymptomatic vaccinations are unlikely to be reported, so vaccination is unlikely to reduce this rate,” the report said. Says.
Similar to the overall number of cases, the model predicts that total hospitalizations will exceed spring highs without action to control infection by early September and will continue to rise above the surge bed capacity available throughout the fall. I am.
The report emphasizes that the model is forecasting or not forecasting, and points out that multiple factors, among which government executives, can help change the trend line.
The report calls for urgent action to return the initial dose of vaccine to more than 20,000 per day until 90% of the population is vaccinated, but spreads delta variants until that threshold is reached. State measures are also needed to curb.
Even if the state sets new limits next week, the model predicts more than 2,000 cases daily throughout most of September.
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