Why “Zero Covid” is no longer a viable strategy

Opinion: Eliminating Covid-19 altogether is what every country is aiming for in an ideal world, but this approach now seems unattainable.

NS Andrew Lee, University of Sheffield

Around the world, countries must balance Covid-19 cases and restrictions. In the United Kingdom and the United States, there are thousands of new cases each day, but the restrictions and restrictions have been lifted.In contrast, New Zealand Short national blockade To include only a handful of cases.

Over the last two decades, New Zealand, Australia, and several other East Asian countries have pursued strict policies aimed at completely eradicating Covid-19.The characteristics of these “zero covid” approaches are rigorous Border control When Arrange for quarantine Similar to the early introduction of blockades when discovering cases.

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Morning of RTÉ Radio1 From Ireland, New Zealand journalist Alice Wilkins is discussing the reintroduction of restrictions in New Zealand after a positive case of Covid-19.

So far, they helped to minimize Infection When Dead (number).. NS Economic impact What the countries that adopt these approaches are experiencing is not as serious as those that are not.New Zealand said that I’m going to continue The Covid-19 eradication strategy is indefinite.

Is this sustainable?In an ideal world, the complete elimination of Covid-19 is the goal of all nations, early in the pandemic. I supported this strategy.. But now that the pandemic has progressed, this approach doesn’t make much sense.

Impossible dream?

Currently, high-level viruses are prevalent in many countries and are not aimed at eradicating the virus. Also, countries with few infections, such as New Zealand and Australia, are unlikely to continue to block Covid-19 indefinitely in a virus-prone world.

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Starting Saturday at RTÉ Radio 1, Katie Hannon, Damien English, Verona Murphy, DonnchadhÓ Laoghaire and Aoife McLysaght will discuss the Zero Covid Strategy

Always there Import risk By infected travelers from other areas. And in a globalized world, long-term isolation of a country from most other countries can be costly and unpopular to maintain. In addition, some luck is required. Vietnam, Thailand, South KoreaOnce quoted as a Zerocovid success story, despite various border controls in place, it struggled to contain the virus when it was imported.

The fact that the virus is mutated may explain why they found it difficult to keep the virus away. The virus is better spread to humans.Alpha variants are around 50% to 100% more contagious Than the original virus that appeared in late 2019 Increased infectivity by 50% From Alpha. The more infectious the virus is, the more you need to do to enforce suppression.

There are other factors to consider. The virus can infect both livestock and wildlife. When humans give viruses to animals, New virus storage Is created, the virus is potentially Spill on humans After being suppressed.

Up-to-date information on the situation in Covid in New Zealand and Australia by Dr. David Murdoch, an infectious disease expert, and Lara Hyams, an ABC journalist, from Today With Claire Byrne on RTÉ Radio 1.

In addition to this, the majority of human infections are asymptomatic. These infections are difficult to detect early and can spread. Both factors increase the likelihood that Covid-19 will be reintroduced at some point unless high levels of restrictions in Zero Covid countries persist.

But how long will people continue to support the zero-covid approach if it means going into regular blockages to handle a small number of cases?In Australia, people I’m getting tired Repeated restrictions, especially since viruses seem to be Fixation for now.Trust in government support for Covid-19 Declining When Stress is increasing.. That said There is still support For New Zealand’s rigorous approach.

Role of vaccine

An important counterpoint is that countries like Australia and New Zealand still have it. Low vaccination rate.. Relaxing current policies can spread the virus rapidly and cause a great deal of confusion, illness, and death that can be avoided.

And the zero covid policy ExpensiveOne of the things this pandemic has taught us is to take a rigorous approach in the short term. Health and social wealth.. In countries with low levels of infection and low vaccination rates, there are very good cases for continued maximal control.

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According to RTÉ News, a UK study shows that the Covid-19 vaccine is less effective in Delta.

However, it is not very clear what the best long-term solution is.The virus has not yet settled in it Ecological nicheTherefore, it is unclear what the final behavior will be. There are several possible consequences, but they depend on how much the vaccine blocks the capture and spread of the virus in people, rather than simply preventing it from getting sick.

Cases should settle to low levels if the vaccine provides adequate protection from infection and a sufficient population is vaccinated.Then you may be able to: Achieve eradication Like measles, it infected many Covid-19s around the world through immunization. The risk of reintroduction of the virus from areas with high cases and the risk of survival of the virus in unvaccinated groups remains. This is today’s measles behavior.

However, it is unclear how long vaccine protection will last, and substantial inequity in global vaccine distribution is a significant barrier to widespread suppression of Covid-19. Increasingly, the views of public health experts are Population level immunity is unattainable at the moment.

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From RTÉ News in January, opposition urges government to adopt a “zero-covid” strategy

Another possibility is that the vaccine does not adequately stop the spread of the infection. In this scenario, the virus continues to circulate, but severe illness reduces hospitalization and mortality.Occurs regularly and probably A seasonal epidemic similar to influenza.. This is a more likely scenario. In that case, the focus is on more than trying to stop the spread of the infection. Protect vulnerable individuals Through immunization.

Accept Covid-19 to be endemic – Already many people – And to prepare for that contingency Only realistic end game strategy For all countries. As a result, countries with low levels of infection and immunity, such as Australia and New Zealand, have an urgent need to immunize their populations. This is important if you want to avoid the significant Covid-19 mortality and morbidity found in Europe and the Americas.

However, once this is done, continuing repeated blockades can be socio-economically destructive and difficult to maintain public support. With the fact that the virus is more contagious, it is almost impossible to completely close the border in the long run, and other countries are not pursuing zero covid, these factors are to eliminate the virus altogether. It may make it impossible.

Andrew Lee Is a leader in global public health University of Sheffield..This article was originally published by conversation..

The views presented here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ.