Maine is the only state that does not calculate daily positive test rates

More than two months after the first confirmed case of coronavirus here, Maine is the only state in the country that has not compiled a daily report on the number of people tested.

The downside means that public health officials and others are prevented from monitoring key indicators that track the spread of the disease to detect new recurrences and guide restart plans.

The Maine Centers for Disease Control only aggregates the total number of negative tests for state residents once a week. This means that this institution can only determine this important metric (the so-called “positive rate”) once a week. As Press Herald Reported April 14, Even though at least three rely on external laboratories for some of their testing, all other states of New England have been publishing their test count results since March.

A week ago, The New York Times Data articles It shows that the reopening states meet the White House guidelines, in particular the daily trend of positive rates and the trend of managed cases. The only state excluded from these and other charts was Maine, “due to lack of consistent and reliable data on state trials,” the newspaper reported.

Positive rates are not unclear data. Dr. Nirav Shah, director of Maine’s CDC, said at a news conference on Monday that 12 of 16 Maine states would be safe or gradual, including the resumption of most retail activity on May 11. When asked how they were evaluating the resumption, I repeatedly emphasized its importance.

“This indicator I often return to, the positive rate, seems to be stable when not headed in the right direction,” Shah said. “If you increase the number of tests by 3x and the positivity remains the same (or if you increase the number of tests by 3x and the positivity increases … this is another epidemiological story.”

In epidemiology, positive rates are often used to track the spread of deadly illness in situations where most people are untested and indicate whether the test regime casts a sufficiently wide net. .. If the test expands and the positive rate does not decrease, that is a bad sign. This is because it indicates that many cases are no longer being detected by the community.

Dr. Patrick Remington, emeritus professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine, said Maine’s once-a-week approach is unwise because it deprives the state of complete information. “The more information we have, the better decisions we can make,” Remington said. “It doesn’t make much mathematical sense not to take advantage of the fact that there is new information every day.”

“If it works everywhere, it’s a standard practice of best practices,” he added.

Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said it was a bad idea to see positive rest rates only once a week. “I don’t want to be a week before I realize the problem, because it’s the week you lost in that you can implement the changes.”

Jeremy Yud, a researcher at the intersection of government and public health at the University of Minnesota Duluth, said daily measurements of positive COVID-19 results are essential for public health authorities. “Once a week, with weekly restarts in different countries, a weekly count isn’t a sensitive enough tool to know if these (restart) decisions are correct.” He said.

“The fact that Maine is the only state in the country where this information is not provided suggests that something isn’t happening at some point in the chain, and what other states do they do. You will have the opportunity to learn what you are doing and adapt the main CDC infrastructure to do that, “he added.

The description of the main CDC has changed. A month ago, agency spokesman Robert Long said there were problems with the various formats used by external laboratories, which make up the bulk of the main testing, but external laboratories also said. At least three New England states to use will overcome these challenges. He also said the agency was working with external laboratories “to develop a more consistent system for reporting negative test results.”

But this week, Long told the Press Herald by email that the main CDC is sticking to weekly editing as a matter of policy.

“In other states with significantly higher numbers of cases, weekly trend analysis meets our needs to date, although measuring daily test trends may find greater value.” Writes Long. “Main CDC continues to focus on maximizing the resources available to meet the needs of the main people.”

Long was asked if he was worried by the authorities whether it was the only state that did not collect test data every day, and the countryside features of Maine and the prevalence of COVID-19, which has low relativity, Suggested to be unique.

“The conditions in Massachusetts and New York are different from the main conditions, so the response is different,” he wrote. “In these states, the much larger number of cases and much denser urban centers lead to test strategies that reflect challenges different from those faced by Maine.”

He didn’t explain why there are at least five states with low per capita illness Prevalence — Oregon, West Virginia, Alaska, Hawaii, and Montana — Tracking positive rates daily New Brunswick has only two active cases across the state And in a week I haven’t seen any new cases.

After May 5, Pres Herald had asked to interview Shah about this and other testing issues related to the resumption plan, but was repeatedly told it wasn’t available.

The White House guidelines state that all states seeking to end the blockade should first take a downward case for 14 days before reopening. Active cases in Maine increased during the two weeks before Phase 1 resumed on May 1, but guidelines suggest that states can resume if the test-positive rate declines over two weeks. States.

As of May 6, Maine reported a cumulative negative test of 22,092 and a positive test of 1254, or a positive test rate of 5.3%. Two weeks ago, Maine had 16,784 negative tests and 907 positive tests, accounting for 5.1%. This indicates that the state does not meet the standards.

The main CDC also lags behind the collection or disclosure of other types of data related to pandemics. is The only state in New England to report cases of COVID-19 by county rather than by town.. The agency was unable to determine the number of COVID-19 patients admitted on a particular day-a key metric for burden on hospitals- Until April 10, 3 days after Press Herald was published Shortcomings.. Government agencies did not request information from the hospital until March 31st. Unable to provide exact number of beds and ventilators in intensive care unit By the week of April 5, more than three weeks after the first confirmed incident in the state.

Massachusetts provides detailed information on the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 at all hospitals in the state and the number of confirmed cases at each state care facility. Press Herald Collect and publish According to data from hospitals over the past four weeks, CDC spokeswoman Long said he would not release information about long-term care facilities with fewer than three confirmed cases.

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