According to the survey, the peak of COVID is still 6 weeks away, and NSW can reach 6,000 cases per day.

According to a new study, in the current setting, the daily COVID-19 case count continues to grow and can peak between 1,500 and 6,000 per day by early October.

The University of Sydney used complex modeling to predict the latest outbreak trajectory, taking into account the high infectivity of delta variants, current blockade settings, and progress in vaccine deployment.

Using data available by August 25, infections could surge to 40,000 per day if the restrictions were completely lifted when 80% of adults were vaccinated. I understand.

Modeling showed that continued testing, tracking, quarantine, quarantine, and travel restrictions could still infect 500,000 people the following month.

This clear figure supports NSW’s decision to maintain some restrictions even after reaching the 80% immunization threshold.

Gladys Berejikrian hasn’t outlined exactly which restrictions will remain, but earlier this week Dr. Kelly Chant flagged that masking might remain “years” to fight COVID-19. I set it up.

Research leader Mikhail Procopenko said the data is a reminder.

“It is encouraging for more people to be vaccinated, but when we end the blockade, we can expect to see a rapid increase in cases.”

He said the blockade is expected to be lifted in New South Wales in November once 80 percent of the eligible population receives both jabs.

He wants social distance to be maintained to prevent a sharp peak in the incident.

Professor Procopenko said the post-blockage surge is likely to occur in unvaccinated people, including children, and is concerned that the hospital system is not prepared for an immediate surge in cases.

“The obvious point is this … As a society, we can choose to land gently or come to a dramatic crash landing,” he said.

“This depends on the community continuing to take high vaccines, keeping people socially distant over the next few months, and preparing and strengthening our healthcare system to cope with the surge in hospitalizations that come after the blockage. Probably. “

Professor Procopenko expects the expansion of the pandemic to slow from mid-December.

The modeling was created by the Complex Systems Center at the University of Sydney. Although published online, the rigorous peer review process has not yet been completed.

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