Is Covid-19 currently in fashion in India?

What is a fad?

Endemic means something that is always present. For example, leading virologist Dr. Shahid Jameel said influenza is endemic, unlike eradicated smallpox.

“Only pathogens that do not have animals (another species) as reservoirs can be eradicated. Smallpox and polio are examples of human viruses, and rinderpest is a bovine virus. The presence of a virus / pathogen in an animal reservoir, such as a cat, means that a reduced level of immunity to the disease caused by it can lead to reinfection, “says Dr. Jameel.

“in the case of coronavirus In case of illness, it is present in the animal reservoir and continues to circulate. This also means that people cause illness to the extent that they are not vaccinated or exposed. However, if a sufficient number of people are vaccinated or exposed to infection, the virus causes symptomatic infections, but not the disease. So it’s what is thought to be endemic-it’s there, but it’s not causing the disease, “Dr. Jameel said.

When can SARS-CoV-2 become prevalent?

It depends on how fast it spreads and changes. Dr. Jameel has many variables to consider and there is no clear answer as to when the virus can spread. “Rather than worrying about whether the virus has become endemic, we need to focus on vaccination to limit the infection. It is impossible to predict when the virus will spread,” says Professor James. I did.

The final serological study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) showed approximately from a representative sample of the population (70 of 718 districts). Two-thirds of the population has antibodies.. Again, some of these two-thirds had antibodies because they were completely vaccinated.However, the vaccination rate is Still quite lowThe general assumption is that most people who have antibodies are infected, but not all are ill. This means that the majority will later be protected from symptomatic treatment, Dr. Jameel explained. They can be infected, but they are protected.

“Repeat, this assumes that the virus is easily transmitted and does not change in a way that evades immunity. Whether and when the virus changes to what the vaccine begins to fail. I can’t predict what it will be, “said Professor Jameel.

How long can you expect the antibody to last?

Professor Partha Majumder, Chairman of the National Science Committee of the Government of India, said this was an open issue. “Currently, most people have antibodies, which reduces the chance of infection and may not cause serious illness if infected. This virus will stay with us. We. May have already developed Herd immunity, This indicates that most of us have antibodies for either infection or vaccination. Therefore, if infected, it may not develop a serious illness, “he said.

“Because of its spread and mutation rates, it is prevalent that many of us are with you without causing major health problems, as this coronavirus will never be eradicated not only in India but worldwide. I’m hoping that the majority will have developed protective antibodies, “he said.

Dr. Amitav Banerjee, a clinical epidemiologist colonel (retired), also referred to a national serum survey, showing that nearly 67% of Indians, including most children, have IgG antibodies. “As antibody levels decline over time, immunity persists due to memory and T cells. It can be inferred that a much larger proportion of this, over 67%, encountered the virus and had immunity from natural infections. Further IgG-level serologic studies need to be performed, “said Colonel Banerjee.

Can additional vaccine doses help?

whether Booster dose According to Professor Majumda, vaccine requirements depend on how quickly the average individual’s antibody levels decline. “The downward trend in antibody levels varies widely from person to person. Not enough data has yet been accumulated to clearly determine the need for booster doses,” said Professor Majumder.

“Vaccines appear to decline in effectiveness over time, but they are still expected to provide substantial protection,” said Gautam Menon, a professor of physical biology at Ashoka University. increase.

Need to worry about the numbers increasing again?

According to Professor Menon, nearly constant levels of infection are expected in the population, and as people are vaccinated, the chances of serious illness, hospitalization, or death become smaller and smaller.

NS Delta variant It currently controls new infectious diseases throughout the country. The virus constantly mutates, but the question is whether new variants will emerge that are much more contagious than Delta and can circumvent the immune response from previous infections or vaccinations.

“Otherwise, we might expect a slight background in reinfection and the breakthroughs in vaccines to help keep the number of infected people low and at a constant level. In some areas, especially before. There is a high probability that stable levels of cases will occur, such as low serum prevalence, low vaccination rates, and spikes. There is no possibility of a number of cases comparable to the second wave. No, “said Professor Menon.

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