COVID hospitalizations will peak next month, but forecasts show improvement

Dallas — Inpatients with COVID-19 patients are expected to peak next month at levels close to or higher than those seen by North Texas during the surge in January last year. But new forecasts show signs of improvement.

UT Southwestern COVID forecasts that things will get worse before things get better.

Hospitalizations are increasing in northern Texas, but vaccinations and mask use are also increasing. This can cause COVID infection rates to begin to decline faster than previously predicted.

UT Southwestern expects hospitalizations in North Texas to continue to increase over the next few weeks.

“This surge is frankly two things. It’s primarily a Delta variant, primarily chasing unvaccinated,” said Stephen Love of the DFW Hospital Council.

At the current pace, forecasts predict that hospital cases will reach levels in September in Dallas and Tarrant counties that exceed the sum of the previous surges in January.

Instead of expecting Dallas County to reach 1,500 inpatients with COVID in mid-September, the current forecast is 1,300 per day.

In Tarrant County, the projected peak has been further reduced from 1,900 to 1,300.

UT Southwestern: COVID-19 hospitalization hits the greatest pandemic ever

Highly contagious delta mutants currently account for 95% of new infections.

“It also has the ability to attach better to cells in the throat and lungs, which results in many people being hospitalized,” explained Dr. Trish Pearl of UT Southwestern.

Parkland Hospital currently has 206 COVID patients. Eight are pregnant women with active labor.

“During COVID-19 infection, there are serious adverse effects on mothers and babies,” said Dr. Anthony Fouch, president’s chief medical adviser. “Therefore, vaccination is important for pregnant women and those who are thinking of becoming pregnant.”

Weekly hospitalization rates for the younger age group in North Texas have already peaked in January.

Dr. John Carlo is a member of the COVID-19 Task Force of the Texas Medical Association.

“Thanks to heightened awareness, these results may now be apparent. I certainly hope it will continue,” he said. “What’s happening in our hospital system right now is a very busy situation and we don’t want to see it get busy.”

Currently, there are more than 3,400 COVID patients in hospitals in northern Texas in our 19 county area.

As of Tuesday, 95 confirmed COVID pediatric patients have been hospitalized. This is the highest total for the group, coupled with the premature epidemic of another respiratory virus since the pandemic began.

“We are currently coping with the outbreak of RSV, which is a classic example of increasing bed occupancy in these children’s hospitals,” explained Dr. Rochelle Warrensky, director of the CDC. ..

The UT Southwestern Report contains some promising trends.

New hospitalizations remain flat in Dallas County, where public self-reported masking is 80%. Positive rate tests are also decreasing.

The report found that increased masking and vaccination rates did not increase hospitalization rates as rapidly as previously predicted. He added that when hospitalizations peaked, hospitalizations could begin to decline more rapidly.

“What that means is that it’s going in the right direction,” Love said.

Immunization rates are rising and positive rates are declining, but Labor Day holidays can upset some of that progress.

“Hopefully, we’ll all do our part this Labor Day holiday weekend,” said Dr. Carlo. “We need to make sure we are really aware of our surroundings.”

Dr. Pearl wants to remind people that when you get vaccinated, it takes 10 weeks to get a complete immune response. Therefore, she says, it is important to wear a mask in which the highly contagious delta mutant is still circulating.