Reducing contact and increasing vaccines will help delay the fourth wave: Science Table

Doctors monitoring COVID-19’s orbit in Ontario say some intervention will be needed during the fourth wave to prevent the ICU from being overwhelmed again, but it doesn’t have to be blocked. ..

The Ontario Science Table released Fourth Wave Modeling on September 1st via its website and social media. This table has released modeling data since June.

The table didn’t give a regular media presentation, but some members of the advisory group visited Twitter to explain the best and worst scenarios.

In the current 4th wave trajectory, the table predicts that there will be about 500 COVID patients in the ICU by October, and the ICU predicts that it will be “overwhelmed beyond what we saw in the 3rd wave.” doing.

The Delta variant has already changed the state’s COVID response, and Health Director Dr. Keeran Moore has urged announcing a suspension of the roadmap to resume to maintain current limits until further notice. increase.

Report by Ontario Public Health in July He said that previous estimates of vaccine coverage needed to initiate the lifting of public health measures were based on alpha variants and needed to be modified for delta variants. The roadmap to reopening the state is based on alpha variant vaccination rates, and Ontario states that the plan can be completed if 75% of the eligible population is vaccinated.

Based on the delta variant pattern, Public Health Ontario estimated the “significant threshold” for vaccination to be 90% of the total population. This is more than 100% of the eligible population.

“Because of the delta variant, and to avoid the fall blockade, we need to accelerate vaccination … and we need to reduce contact,” said the Science Table release.

According to the last release of the science table, the number of reproductions of the delta variant is 6-8, which means that all infected people usually infect 6-8 others with the virus. The original strain of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) had a reproductive count between 2 and 3.

According to science tables, the risk of hospitalization after infection and in the intensive care unit is also 2-3 times higher for the delta variant.

Dr. Beate Sander, a member of the Science Table and co-chair of the Modeling Consensus Table, posted a Twitter thread comparing the Delta variant to “driving on a frozen road.”

“Move fast means you need to brake hard with a stop sign ahead. Moving slowly means you have more time to react,” Thunder tweeted. Did.

For the fourth wave of Ontario, moving slowly means reducing person-to-person contact.

“This doesn’t mean a September blockade. You can mitigate the fourth wave by (moderately) reducing contacts. The sooner the better,” Sander said. I tweeted.

According to science tables, ontarians are about 83% of pre-pandemic contact levels, and lowering it to 70% may be sufficient to reduce infections and prevent the worst-case scenarios (4,000-9,000). there is. Per day in October). In the lower range, modeling predicts about 500 cases per day in October, reducing person-to-person contact.

“It doesn’t mean we won’t open a school. Education is very important,” Sander tweeted. “It is important to keep community infections low in schools and take strong safety measures.”

On the table Previously published report He called on the Ontario government to reopen schools last spring on the importance of keeping schools open.

In addition to reducing contact between people, a tweet from the Ontario Science Table said the state needed to “significantly accelerate vaccines.”

Currently, Ontario’s vaccination rate has peaked at around 76%, but Delta Variant is pushing the science table to recommend a vaccination rate of at least 85%.

According to science tables, increasing vaccination rates require vaccination certificates, obligations, and policy support for further outreach.

Simcoe-Muskoka

Dr. Charles Gardner, a medical officer of the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit and chair of the Ontario Health and Medical Council, said policies are important for achieving higher immunization rates.

“We need to implement support policies,” Gardner said in a media briefing on September 1. “Vaccine mandates are very important.”

He is in the state September 1st Announcement of Vaccine Passport Program To go indoors in restaurants, gyms and other public places, require people to show proof of vaccination. He also praised the vaccination policy of the Royal Victoria Regional Health Center in Barry. 100% of staff are vaccinated or face consequences This may include dismissal.

Dr. Moore previously ordered a high-risk environment for implementing vaccination policies, including colleges, shelters, retirement homes, group homes, medical facilities, and emergency care.

“Elementary and junior high schools are also a very important environment for protection, especially if children under the age of 11 think they are not yet immune,” Gardner said. “We need to do everything we can to protect these environments and prevent children from becoming cases. Therefore, these environments require particularly high immunization rates.”

Gardner said he hopes Dr. Moore will soon announce a “policy approach” to vaccination in schools.

“I don’t know the details about it, but I’m sure they’ll come,” Gardner said.