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Does Herd Immunity Help Prevent Coronaviruses? Experts warn that it is not easy.

 


Dr. Ryan Mike Ryan, World Health Organization emergency officer, provided a tough word on Wednesday about the hope that herd immunity can stimulate the coronavirus.

“Humans are not a flock,” he said.

Herd immunity has emerged in the last few weeks as a popular topic among those who claim that the coronavirus blockage is too tight.

Collective immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes how people collectively stop an infection when a percentage of the population is immune to the disease.

However, the herd immunity associated with coronaviruses is far from reality, especially without a vaccine. Ryan said the term “herd immunity” stems from veterinary epidemiology and typically includes business decisions about whether to kill an animal in the herd’s general health. .

“The individual animal in that sense is not important in terms of the brutal economics of that decision,” Ryan said.

“Therefore, we really take care when using the term this way for natural human infections, as it can lead to very brutal calculations that do not center humans and life and suffering in their equations. I think it’s necessary. “

Health professionals and authorities continue to warn that there is no easy way out of the coronavirus pandemic, especially as parts of the United States are beginning to loosen blockades. Herd immunity is out of reach, even where the pandemic suffers the most.

There are two main ways to achieve high levels of immunity in a population. A sufficient number of people are already infected and the immune system is developing antibodies to prevent future infection-at least in the short term-or there is a vaccine. Without herd immunity or effective treatment, and without means of social distance, countries need to prepare for regular and unpredictable spikes of new infections until vaccines are widely available. Is expected.

For COVID-19, a disease caused by coronaviruses, it is estimated that 50% to 70% of the population need to be immune to achieve population immunity.

With more than 4.3 million confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide, no country is approaching the level of immunity needed to collectively delay infection.

Thousands of people returning to work in April in Wuhan, China, were tested for antibodies, and only a few percent developed antibodies as a result of preliminary research. Initial results of a national survey in Spain found that about 5% of the approximately 90,000 people tested were antibody positive. And even in big hit areas such as New York City, 1,300 people’s preliminary test 21.2% found to be antibody positive..

“That means, 80% of the population still seems to be vulnerable,” said Dr. Robert Atmar, an infectious disease specialist at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. “Thus, even in heavily affected areas, we don’t see the levels we expect for herd immunity.”

The immunity of the herd, which depends on the pathogen, is calculated on the basis of the infectivity of the disease — the number of people who have one infected person who remains infected. In general, highly contagious diseases require a high proportion of the immunized population to be effective in immunizing the herd.

“In diseases like measles, more than 95% of the population needs to be immune, but with other pathogens, the number of people who need it can be smaller,” Atmer said. Said.

Dr. David Daudy, associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said this is a concern for all countries trying to lift lockdown restrictions.

Epidemiologists and public health officials generally agree that allowing coronaviruses to build the herd’s immune system by natural transmission is disastrous.

“For now, unless you’re in New York City, less than 5% of the population can be immune, so getting the herd’s immunity can be as high as the number of cases and deaths we have already experienced. We have to take this and multiply it by about 15. ” “If we did that in the short term, it would obviously be catastrophic to the health system.”

But it causes public health problems. Can even the most disjointed projections, which estimate that there are no vaccines and valid candidates at least nine months ahead, will reduce social distances without inviting a new wave of infectious diseases?

In the U.S., where unemployment is skyrocketing and anti-blockade protests intensified, some demonstrators and lawmakers have acted as models and ways of flocking without strict social distance measures. Refers to Sweden as a possible way to build the immune system.

Sweden, in particular, did not enact an official blockade and opened the school to students under the age of 16 even if other countries in Europe took unprecedented steps to control the spread of the virus. At a meeting of the Health, Education, Labor and Pension Committee on Tuesday, Senator Randpol, who is also a doctor, suggested that the United States follow Swedish lead.

However, while the “Swedish model” is welcomed as a success story, details emerge that show that the country has its own struggles. In Sweden, there are more than 28,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and more than 3,500 deaths. And while these numbers are inferior to the 1.4 million cases and more than 85,000 deaths in the United States, Swedish coronavirus mortality rates are higher than in the United States.

And there is little evidence that Sweden is close to herd immunity. of National Public Health Department said in late April About one-third of Stockholm’s one million residents may have been exposed to the virus by early May, indicating some progress towards herd immunity, but estimated to be needed 70 Far from%.

And Sweden’s response caused human damage.

“Sweden paid nearly the highest, if not the highest, mortality rate in Europe, so they paid for their approach,” Daudy said.

Further wrinkles are that scientists are still uncertain whether coronavirus antibodies are converted to immunity.

“It’s likely, but not certain,” Atmar said. “I think it’s reasonable to expect some immunity and protection from reinfection, but I don’t have that information yet.”

Even if the antibody could protect someone from reinfection, it’s unclear how long the immunity will last.

“If the natural immunity to the virus goes away within three to six months, you don’t even need to talk about herd immunity,” Daudy said.

Still, even if social distance restrictions are gradually lifted, Atmar said that there are several ways to contain the spread of the virus.

“Wearing masks in public places, changing public transport usage, and strengthening testing and contact tracking can reduce some of the risk of infection,” he said. “If we could identify and isolate potentially infected people early, we could reduce the infection.”

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