Oregon COVID-19 hospitalizations can peak, but that’s a long way off

According to a new model at Oregon Health & Science University, hospitalization with COVID-19 in Oregon could peak during the next week and probably begin to decline. But that only happens if the Oregons continue to wear masks and take precautions.

However, hospitalizations may peak, which means they are higher than ever. In a Friday press release, Oregon Governor Kate Brown urged Oregon residents to avoid dangerous activities on Workers’ Day weekends to keep the hospital’s emergency department empty.

Oregons fought the previous surge by wearing masks and adhering to strict social distance measurements. This time, masking helps flatten the curve, but another major reason is that not many people get the virus.

“This is the exact place we were trying to avoid, with 1,200 hospitalizations and feeling that almost all hospital systems are overwhelmed or that other types of care must be postponed or canceled. This is what we were trying to avoid. We are at stake, “said Dr. Peter Grave, lead data scientist at OHSU.

The Oregon hospital is full and has been running for several weeks. It doesn’t change immediately.

“Now we’re in the flattening stage. Frankly, it’s probably going to bounce back a bit. You’ll probably still see it up and down before it actually starts to descend,” Graven said. Yes, but that’s never a good thing. I think it will be two months of pain before this becomes manageable again. “

The progress made by the state in the fight against delta variants of the coronavirus is vulnerable. There are many people in Oregon who are not yet immune. According to Graven, Oregons have worn masks to avoid large numbers of people and indoor dining in bars and restaurants. This really helped flatten new infections. But he hopes to see an increase in communication linked to people’s socializing this Labor Day weekend. And in the fall, people spend more time indoors, which can change transmission speeds.

“We haven’t passed anything. Alerts are clearly important. Every communication we prevent now clears the hospital a little faster. And that doesn’t matter. [cases are] Even if it goes up or down, it still prevents the infection, “Graven said.

And of course, there are children too. Thousands of children under the age of 12 who have not yet received the COVID-19 vaccine are returning to school.

In spring, there were few outbreaks associated with face-to-face learning. But now the number of cases is much higher, which means it is more likely to occur in school. And while the Delta variant wasn’t a factor in the spring of 2021, it’s now a game changer.

“In my opinion [schools] Taking all precautions can feel pretty good about it. But that’s what we need to monitor and perhaps make changes as we progress, “Graven said.

With schools open all over the country, child cases are skyrocketing in some states. Others are not. It is not yet clear whether coronavirus delta variants are more dangerous to children.

Still, Bend and Redmond’s St. Charles Health System is now doubling the size of the pediatric intensive care unit.

“Just in case,” said Dr. Doug Merrill, Chief Medical Officer of St. Charles.

Some areas are still hot zones

The modeling done by Gravens focuses on the entire state of Oregon. And that’s important. Because when so many people get sick, hospitals rely on each other to transport patients and find available beds.

However, the model forecast is a state-wide average. “The case will continue to rise in some places and fall in other places,” Graven said.

Hospital Area 7, which includes Bend, Redmond, and several counties in the south and east, is one area where cases may continue to grow.

“Our people are estimating a peak after 11 days, and September 17th is our predicted peak,” said St. Charles Merrill.

Three weeks ago, about 50 people with COVID-19 were admitted to the St. Charles system, and patients were already waiting (sometimes for a few days) to be admitted to the hospital from the emergency room. Today, more than 90 to more than 80 people are hospitalized a few days ago.

Most of the people who left ICU did so with body bags.

According to Merrill, their modeling predicts that about 120 patients will be hospitalized with COVID-19 at a time and the healthcare system will peak locally.

“Currently, 220 adults are hospitalized, and that number is usually in the 180s when we’re full,” Merrill said.

Despite the highest number ever, things aren’t as dire as Merrill was previously worried about, but it’s arrived from other states with traveling nurses and doctors seeking help, and Oregon’s National Guard. Is also useful in managing the surge in cases because it was deployed in a local hospital.

“We love the guards we are with. We are very grateful to the staff we got from the state and through our own contract,” Merrill said.

Staff are still working overtime and extra shifts, and many COVID-19 patients are currently assigned two per room.

“It’s just such a stressful environment. I hope we’ll be there for a few more weeks and the situation will improve,” Merrill said. “And the fact that it’s not just stressful.”

Healthcare workers support long distances

The Portland Metro area has not been hit harder than the rest of the state, but the high vaccination rates have also overwhelmed the hospital system in the Metro area. Both Providence Portland Medical Center and Providence St. Vincent Medical Center have ordered a “death management truck”: a temporary morgue.

“We are still seeing an increase in the number of COVID-19s, and we want to prepare for it,” said Rosa Korn, director of nursing at Providence St. Vincent.

Hospital morgues usually have room to accommodate less than 10 dead at a time. However, the morgue cannot catch up because the delta variant is killing people so quickly.

“It’s very difficult for staff, especially because these patients are far more ill than the first or second surge of COVID-19, which is very mentally and physically burdensome,” he said. Amanda Hanley, Nurse Manager for Medical Unit B, said. Providence St. Vincent. The number of people in need of respiratory support has almost doubled, and hospitals have filled up much faster than in previous surges.

Medical unit B is now fully COVID-19 ward. This is the first place many COVID-19 patients go when they are hospitalized.

Abigail McDonald, the nurse in charge of Medical Unit B, said the last few weeks have been very difficult.

“Our patients aren’t as sick as when they go to ICU. You know them from the beginning until you see them enter the intensive care unit, and they may not come back. I know that, “said McDonald’s.

Healthcare workers at multiple hospitals told the OPB that patients were more likely to be discharged before the pandemic occurred when they entered the ICU. There was reason to be optimistic. That’s not the case now, they say.

“We usually take care of some patients at the end of life, but that’s what they expected and planned, much different than when they lived a full life,” McDonald said. I did. She is currently transferring a patient in her thirties to life-saving emergency. These are people who never thought they were in this position and have not made decisions about resuscitation or end-of-life care.

Currently, McDonald’s and Hanley may hear the patient’s last conversation with his family. A conversation took place over the phone or zoom in front of a nearby hospital without anyone knowing.

This surge has hit health care workers particularly hard. Some of it is that it is often preventable: people who would not have had to be hospitalized if they had been vaccinated with COVID-19.

But more than that, they say that it is the decline and flow of hope that reaches them. Even if the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths begins to decrease, it is difficult to feel optimistic.

“We’ve seen the light many times at the end of the tunnel during the pandemic, and it’s an emotional roller coaster to reach the surge we’re facing now,” said Korn. Said. “It makes me hold my breath in the light.”