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Experts warn about another fall surge in Covid-19 in WNY | Local News

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In western New York, two local experts say new Covid-19 cases are likely to surge further this fall, unless they rapidly double on vaccination, masking, social distance, and other pandemic precautions. Warned at a press conference on Friday.

A recent model at the University of Buffalo suggests that new cases may continue to increase from autumn to early winter, caused by the continued epidemic of the more contagious delta mutants and the recovery of the cold. ..

Numerical analysis: Why vaccinated residents accounted for 40% of positive Covid-19 tests in Erie County

But how much they rise depends largely on the number of western New Yorkers vaccinated in the coming weeks and how people behave in crowded environments such as schools, stadiums and theaters. Said Dr. Gale Burstein, Ph.D., Erie County Health Commissioner. .. Peter Winkelstein, head of the Healthcare Informatics Institute at the University of Buffalo.

Already, the average number of hospitalizations and new cases per day is about five times that of a year ago, seven weeks before the winter surge, which infects more than 70,000 people. On September 10, 302 new cases were recorded in Erie County alone. This is the maximum number of days since April.

“I’m worried that another wave will be seen again this fall, almost as soon as the weather gets colder and the so-called” breathing season “enters,” Winkelstein said. “In addition to that concern, we are now beginning to infect the virus community at a much higher level than at the same time last year.”

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