How endemic COVID becomes a manageable risk

This pandemic will soon end, and the delta surge, which can infect most people who have not been vaccinated with the coronavirus, could be the last devastating wave in the United States. But just because we want to get over the virus doesn’t mean it’s done with us.

In our large, open, globally connected society, COVID is zero, Goals pursued by Australia and New ZealandIs biologically incredibly politically unrealistic. Americans mainly end up with a nasty shutdown that such a goal would require. The virus is now widespread all over the world, so even the strict and long-lasting restrictions on American movement (far beyond what we can tolerate) could not be completely countered. Instead, SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic virus that colonizes with the other four coronavirus strains that are widely distributed among us.

However, while the other four coronaviruses usually only cause the common cold, SARS-CoV-2 is a drug or vaccination even after this pandemic has diminished, even after the virus has become a predominantly seasonal pathogen. The damage it does can continue to be a more serious threat, even after the restrictions. The virus poses a persistent threat, at least as much as the annual flu. This may seem like a daily routine, but it is a threat to the healthcare system, businesses and schools every winter. The harm to public health and economic productivity would be too great for society to simply shrug, as SARS-CoV-2 mixes with the flu and causes comparable deaths and illnesses. Double virus threats will force better protection. There is no choice.

Read: The coronavirus is here forever. This is the way we live with it.

The biggest challenge in confronting the constant threat of coronavirus is to adapt our work and leisure activities to turn the ubiquitous virus into a manageable risk. And we see if enough Americans can reach political consensus about the practical and cultural changes that this requires.

The current pandemic is the cause of political division, and decisions about how to handle it are evaluated through its prism. State-to-state differences in pandemic policies and the openness of residents to vaccination have created regional differences in the extent of the epidemic. However, as COVID-19 becomes an eternal issue and the need for a sustainable long-term plan to address ongoing threats becomes apparent, the political color of disease control can fade.

The impact on productivity alone requires schools and businesses to strengthen their defenses against respiratory viruses. 2018 Study in the journal vaccination The economic cost of influenza is estimated to exceed $ 11 billion annually, including indirect costs from lost productivity. That number may be modest.Other models put a total burden $ 87 billion.. Past studies have estimated the average number of working days lost due to the flu: 3.7-5.9 days per diagnosed episode..On the other hand, the annual cumulative effects of severe colds and other non-influenza viral respiratory infections Standing about $ 40 billion..

Reducing these threats begins with more aggressive efforts to get people vaccinated against influenza and COVID as well. Work-related vaccination obligations for both illnesses will become more common. (As a disclosure, I should note that I belong to Pfizer’s board of directors.) For people in the telecommuting industry, the calculations for going to work directly may change. During the peak flu and COVID season, businesses can encourage telecommuting to reduce office density. Meetings can shift to months when respiratory pathogens are less prevalent. Businesses make more widespread use of video conferencing to avoid congestion in meeting rooms, and even hold zoom meetings in the office while people are at their desks.

In the past, responsible businesses have encouraged people to stay home if they feel unwell. It should be extended to include people with sick families and those waiting for a solid diagnosis. Discouraging people from catching a cold at work should make the office safer from the outbreak of respiratory viruses. We also need a workplace policy that isolates people from the financial consequences of these prudent medical practices.

Read: Expect something unexpected from the delta variant

The building will also be renovated Improve airflow and filtration To reduce the spread of aerosols. Modern buildings are often tightly sealed, sometimes as part of an attempt to make them more environmentally friendly. Now they should turn blue. Improve airflow and air quality by adding hospital-grade air treatment and filtration systems.

Medical practice also changes. Previous studies of other viral diseases suggest that SARS-CoV-2 can successfully create drugs to combat the basic functions used for reproduction and spread. If these efforts are a guide, we will eventually get an antiviral drug that can be taken orally when people are first diagnosed with COVID to relieve symptoms or lead to serious illness. Prevents the progression of. If you are in close contact with a sick person, the same drug may be used to prevent infection.

Like the flu antiviral drug Tamiflu, COVID drugs reduce that risk, but they cannot be ruled out. Rapid diagnosis is the key to controlling spread and seeking timely care. Home screening is routinely done with tests that can distinguish between influenza and COVID. Regulators, who have discouraged home diagnosis of infectious diseases by self-management tests for years, now support this approach. Patients self-diagnose at home and consult a doctor through a virtual visit. Personal hygiene also changes. During the winter, when the epidemic of respiratory pathogens peaks, the use of voluntary masks in public spaces becomes more common and becomes a cultural norm in some parts of the country.

These tactics only partially block viruses like SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 can spread before people show symptoms and can spread over long distances in poorly ventilated areas. However, it can have a significant impact on the spread of viruses like influenza, and the cumulative threat of these two pathogens, reducing the effects of influenza sufficiently, is a bad season for influenza like winter 2018. It can be a burden comparable to.

I do not intend to annihilate COVID. Instead, our goal should be to weaken that punch so that it becomes a risk we can adapt to. An important measure should be the burden of serious illness.Ultimately, many of us May be infected with SARS-CoV-2.. For most of us, we should expect that we are only a mild infection and will be protected by the vaccine. The availability of shots to children under the age of 12 alleviates some of the comprehensible anxieties parents have about infecting their homes and homes. infant.. Many concerns about face-to-face activities in the workplace may also be alleviated.

There is no bright line separating these two states as the virus transitions from a pandemic to an epidemic. It will span two phases throughout the coming winter. Our progress as people reach different estimates of how much threat COVID personally poses and feel different levels of determination about how aggressively our society is willing to face it. Feels uncertain and chaotic. Wider adoption of the vaccine will increase the confidence of Americans at risk and, once, reduce the prevalence of the disease. Delta wave Being gone will reduce the sense of danger of pervasiveness for many Americans.

During the transition from a pandemic emergency to an endemic hazard, the struggle over how strongly to address the acute risk of COVID discusses how to adjust society to reduce the persistent risk of the virus. It changes to. The twin burden of influenza and COVID will force more collective action. We have been so happy with seasonal flu that we have allowed many people to get sick or kill each year. The second serious illness in the picture will force us to take action.