Health
What is the “R” value, and why is it so important in mitigating coronavirus lockdown?
What is the latest in R0 in the UK?
The government is closely monitoring R0 in the UK.
Last week, Foreign Minister Dominique Raab said it was between 0.5 and 0.9.
He said the overall new deaths and incidents are “steadily diminishing.” But the Secretary of Foreign Affairs argued, “The virus has not been defeated-it is deadly and infectious.”
Subsequently, UK national statistician professor Sir Ian Diamond reiterated that the “R” rate had risen over the past two weeks as a result of the outbreak of a virus in nursing homes.
But he said the background of the viral epidemic is also important.
Raab adds: “Overall R levels are falling, but challenges still remain. Our biggest focus is on hospital infections and nursing home cases. We plan to reduce them in the coming months. . “
Which interventions help reduce R0?
There are many infection control measures that professionals can use to push down this number and “flatten the epidemiological curve”. For example, a Lancet survey earlier this month estimated that W0’s travel restrictions lowered R0 from 2.35 to 1.05 a week later.
According to a preprinted study of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine published in early April, the average daily number of individual contacts has dropped by 73% since the UK’s lockdown began.
“This is sufficient to reduce R0 from 2.6 before lockdown to 0.62 during lockdown, indicating that physical distance intervention is effective.” More than 1,300 adults This study, which was followed and not yet peer-reviewed, was concluded. More recent estimates by the government have supported this data ever since.
Why is it still working, but not yet locked down?
of R0 is not the only number the government is tracking.. It also ensures that the pandemic does not overwhelm the NHS, looks for a “persistent and consistent” drop in mortality, makes sure there is sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE), and finally, changes I’m sure you won’t risk. peak.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain is close to achieving these goals -But the last test to prevent the second wave of coronaviruses is to go back to R0 again.
Professor Whitty said it was the job of the Scientific Advisory Group (Sage) for government emergencies to inform the government of the impact of any decision on unlocking on the R-value.
In Germany, some lockdown measures were lifted when the R value reached 0.7. For example, concerns were alleviated after the country’s Robert Koch Institute said fertility returned to about 0.76 if some shops reopened.
As a result, the government plans to take steps to maintain more social distance for longer than originally expected. Britain needs to do the same tightrope, lifting some restrictions, paying attention to R0 and the case, and adapting the plan depending on what happens.
In the latest guidelines released on May 11, the government announced the Covid Alert System to monitor infection rates and the impact of changes to coronavirus restrictions. Boris Johnson said the system helps “depict progress and never return to its original state.”
This system will be monitored by the new Joint Biosecurity Center. UK status changes within the alert system will be based on replication rates and new coronavirus cases.
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