In Australia, new variants can surge in Covids, even after 80% vaccination when the border reopens.Australian news

If the Australian border is reopened during an epidemic of the highly contagious Covid-19 variant abroad or domestically, on a large scale even after 80% of 16-year-olds have been completely vaccinated. A catastrophic outbreak can occur. Is called.

After New South Wales Prime Minister Dominique Perotet announced on November 1-Friday that returning Australians and tourists would be able to travel to Sydney without the need for hotel quarantine.But late Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the border was Open to vaccinated Australian citizens And their relatives, not the tourists, said, “Don’t hurry.”

Modeling led by Dr. Mark Hanley of the Big Data Research Center health The University of New South Wales applied various assumptions about infectivity, rate of vaccine deployment, and scale of border reopening to identify cases of the virus and its impact on hospitalization.

In a scenario assuming a variant with similar infectivity to the alpha variant, opening the border increased local infections when regional restrictions were limited to mask wearing and social distance. However, in this scenario, “the number of people hospitalized for severe Covid-19 was very small,” Hanly and co-authors wrote.

However, it is a subspecies that enters Australia with the same infectivity as the Delta subspecies, which is distributed when 80% of people over the age of 16 (64% of Australia’s total population) are fully vaccinated and borders. Open, both infectious diseases and hospitalization. Modeling found that this was true regardless of whether 2,500 or up to 13,000 international arrivals were accepted per day. Modeling found that these surges would require wearing masks and public health measures beyond social distances to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

“Plans to reopen the Australian border to international travelers increase the risk of introducing a new infection chain and a new variant of SARS-CoV-2,” Modeling found.

“Political and health system policy makers should not be devoted to defining immunization thresholds where certain restrictions may be lifted. Instead, they are covid- It should be recognized that it is unlikely to achieve full defense against 19. “

It is important to note that Professor Catherine Bennett, Deakin University Epidemiology Director at Deakin University in Melbourne, assumes that when a variant invades from abroad, modeling assumes that the Australian community is virus-free as a baseline. I said there is.

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“That’s no longer true,” Bennett said. “There are already restrictions. Yes, I’m going to relax, but I’m not going to remove them altogether.”

The model also assumed that additional public health measures beyond social distance, such as wearing masks and closing schools, would only be introduced when new cases reached 10,000 per day. Bennett said additional restrictions are likely to be triggered much sooner than the model envisioned.

“It’s likely that measures will be taken to prevent the number from reaching 10,000,” Bennett said. “This modeling emphasizes that we should focus on the kind of health and safety measures that actually lead to prevention, rather than waiting for the virus to be introduced away from us. I think the proposed international resumption is within the scope of these precautions. “

However, UNSW infection control expert Mary-Louise McLaws, a member of the World Health Organization’s Covid Advisory Board, said he was concerned about the reopening of the NSW international border announced by Perotet.

McCrow is happy that the hotel’s quarantine will be abolished, but on the day the Australians board the plane, they will be tested for the virus at landing and only those who test negative will be sent home. Said it was important. Those who test negative should be tested daily for 5 days with a rapid antigen test, and then for the next 5 days, she said.

“Then, the risk of becoming a source of immunodeficiency without vaccination is negligible,” she said. “Even if fully vaccinated, there is a risk of carrying the virus.”

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