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Studies have shown that unvaccinated people are expected to re-infect Covid-19 approximately every 16 months due to their weakened immunity.
The School of Public Health analyzed data on coronaviruses similar to Covid-19, including SARS-CoV-1 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV), and estimated the likelihood of Covid reinfection.
Despite increasing reports of Covid-19 reinfection, the numbers are not yet sufficient for proper research, so scientists analyze data from similar illnesses to determine how long immunity lasts. I predicted.
A study published this month on Lancet microbes estimated that the immunity of those who obtained Covid-19 weakened fairly rapidly.
Haley Hassler, a researcher at Yale University, one of the co-authors of the study, told Yale University Daily News that the risk of reinfection was about 5% 3 months after the initial infection and 50 after 17 months. He said it had risen to a percentage.
People can be re-infected anywhere between 3 and 5 years – the median is 16 months.
The numbers assume that Covid is circulating within the community and has no restrictions such as masks or social distance.
The study also pointed out that immunity can vary significantly between individuals. This can depend, for example, on whether the person is asymptomatic.
“Individuals can have longer or shorter durations of immunity, depending on their immune status, cross-immunity, age, and several other factors,” Hustler said.
As the pandemic continues, scientists believe that reinfection is likely to become more and more common.
Studies show that maintaining social distance measurements and speeding up vaccinations worldwide are important to prevent death, even for people who are already infected.
“We need to be fully aware of the fact that the disease can spread in the long term and there is no long-term immunity that many people want to rely on to protect themselves from the disease. “, Said Jeffrey Townsend, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Yale and the lead author of the study.
The findings are also important for reaching herd immunity. The study “strongly opposes” trying to achieve this without vaccination.
“Depending on herd immunity without extensive vaccination endangers millions of lives and involves a high rate of reinfection, morbidity, and death,” the study said.
In areas with low vaccination, studies point to the need for continuous social distance, proper indoor ventilation, and wearing masks to avoid reinfection.
“The main effect is that if you’re not vaccinated, you should be vaccinated, and if you’re infected, you should be vaccinated anyway, because that will increase your protection period.” Mr Townsend said. Guardian.
A study published in Lancet this month found that a double dose of Pfizer vaccine was 90% effective for at least 6 months for hospitalization of all variants, including Delta.
However, protection against infection from Delta dropped from 93% in one month to 53% after four months.
Efficacy for hospitalization remained high at 93% for the eight months of the study.
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