How much do you need to worry about?

A slightly mutated version of the Delta Coronavirus, nicknamed “Delta Plus” by some observers, has been the focus of attention in the UK, but some infectious disease experts have returned to the original Delta variant. It suggests that the more relevant it is, the less likely it is to cause a surge in more serious cases. ..

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This is not the first so-called “Delta Plus”

According to NPR, the original Delta variant has continued to evolve and mutate since it was first identified in India last year, and both public health professionals and the media have informally “Delta Plus” some subvariants. I call it.Notable, for example, in June “Delta Plus” Subvariants with peplomer mutations have been identified in India.

This latest Delta Plus subvariant, officially known as AY.4.2, was first identified by British scientists last month. AP / Modern Healthcare We report that there are two mutations in peplomer. It has been found in 27 countries, including the United States, Canada and Australia, and parts of Western Europe.

However, GISAID The virus reporting database shows that AY.4.2 has become prominent only in the United Kingdom. As of October 18, approximately 14,247 of the 14,970 Delta Plus cases sequenced worldwide were from the United Kingdom. Newsweek Report.

According to British authorities, the AY.4.2 variant currently accounts for 6% of all Covid-19 cases analyzed in the country and is “on track.”In addition, early evidence from UK Health and Security Agency It suggests that its growth rate may be higher than that of the original delta variant.

according to Newsweek, AY.4.2 is not currently considered by the UK to be a variant of interest or concern. World Health Organization, Also CDCAlthough the UK has labeled it a “variant under investigation”.

Do people need to worry about AY.4.2?

Some health experts say it’s premature, but NPR reports that AY.4.2 is much less likely to be transmitted than the original delta variant.

William Hanage, epidemiologist Harvard University, AY.4.2 variant is estimated to be about 10% more transmissible than the original delta variant. However, according to NPR, this increase in transmitability may not make a big difference, as delta variants are already highly transmittable.

“”[T]He is not in a situation comparable to the emergence of Alpha and Delta, which were far more contagious (more than 50%) than any of the strains in circulation at the time, “said François Burrow’s director. Institute of Genetics so University of London.. “Here we are dealing with a potential slight increase in infectivity that has no impact comparable to a pandemic.”

As such, some health experts report that the AY.4.2 variant is unlikely to surge in Covid-19 cases in the United States, as the original Delta variant did during the summer. increase.

“There is no clear sign that it will get going as Delta did,” said virologist Jeremy Ruban. University of Massachusetts School of Medicine.. “If you survey people who follow these variants, most people will say that AY.4.2 is unlikely to become a new delta. It’s unlikely that they will take over completely. Slowly sneak up. It is likely to be an increase. Case. “

And Jeremy Wrestler, epidemiologist University of North Carolina, Who developed model for Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, “Cases, even in variants that are much more contagious than Delta Plus [in the simulated models] It didn’t even return to the types of peaks we saw last winter, or even the types we saw in delta waves. “

Apart from this, the former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said the latest Delta Plus variant is not contagious enough to affect the current orbit of the pandemic in the United States.

“I don’t think this is enough to really change the trajectory in the direction we’re heading,” Gottlieb said. “We are much closer to the end of this delta wave than at the beginning.” He said the Covid-19 vaccine should be defensive against the AY.4.2 variant, as wide as the original delta variant. He added that it is unlikely to spread.

according to NewsweekCurrently, there are only three cases of the AY.4.2 variant reported in the United States. However, CDC Rochelle Walensky said the agency “follows this genomic sequencing.” [AY.4.2 variant] “Very cautious”, especially as the number of variants continues to grow in the UK (Browne, Newsweek, 10/19 [1]; Brown, Newsweek, 10/19 [2]; AP / Modern Healthcare, 10/22; AP / US News & World Report, 10/22; Daklev, NPR, 10/22; Vakir, Hill, 10/24; Gorgowski, Huffington Post, 10/24)