Health
BC’s COVID-19 modeler’s “carefully optimistic” fourth wave is declining
Vancouver-
The BCCOVID-19 modeling group, which consists of professors from several top universities, predicts that COVID-19 cases should gradually decline in all regions of the state over the next three weeks.
“Currently, it’s declining at a rate of almost 2% a day. It’s not that fast, but if you look at it over the weeks, you’ll reach a much more reasonable level of infection,” said the University of Victoria. Dean Karen, a professor and member of the modeling group, said.
Case numbers are not so dramatic in Northern Health, but are projected to decline in all regions.
“Therefore, there is no rapid growth in balanced areas and no rapid decline elsewhere. It is good because it is stable or declining in all healthy areas of BC. It’s a sign, “said Caroline Colijn, a professor at SFU and a member of the modeling group.
Forecasts include a slight decrease in hospitalization and ICU admission. But they have only seen the next three weeks.
“In the past, our predictions have shown to be reliable up to such a period, but beyond that, things can change dramatically,” Karen said.
Some highly vaccinated European countries are experiencing dramatic changes in the number of COVID-19.
“Something has happened in the last few weeks and so many countries have slowly declined from where we were and have changed again to the very rapid growth of COVID,” Karlen said. .. “We must be vigilant and aware that a similar situation can occur in British Columbia.”
The vaccination rate in British Columbia is only 90% on the first dose in a qualified population and should help prevent recurrence. But Colijn believes we need to be careful.
“I think we still need to be vigilant, as choices favor new viruses that can invade immunized individuals,” she said.
Both Colijn and Karlen describe the worst of BC’s fourth wave behind us as “carefully optimistic,” but Karlen says “be wary of being too optimistic.” Loosen and know what will happen. “
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