Montreal-Like the cover of a book, the numbers may not tell you everything.
In the case of Wednesday, Quebec’s latest COVID-19 update showed that more people were vaccinated with the virus than unvaccinated.
Updated daily among 15 people admitted to state-wide hospitals for coronavirus in the last 24 hours, 7 were unvaccinated, 8 were second vaccinated more than 7 days ago I was inoculated.
However, according to infectious disease experts, it does not mean that the vaccine is not working. Comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitals at face value is wrong for a variety of reasons.
Dr. Donald Vinh of the McGill University Health Center (MUHC) states that it is difficult to determine the exact reason without all the data, but one possible reason is a breakthrough infection caused by a vaccine. Is possible. As experts have said for months, it’s not 100 percent effective.
This is even more true for people with a weakened immune system, such as those with cancer, those on dialysis, transplant recipients, or those taking certain types of drugs that weaken the immune system.
“So when we look at those numbers, we should never see it as a vaccine failure,” he said. “It should be recognized that some people have a disordered immune system, and that vaccines do not always respond very well to them.”
Another possible explanation is that the immunocompromised people targeted by the third booster shot have not yet received it, as recommended by public health.
There are several possible reasons for this: they are waiting the required interval between the second shot and the booster shot, have not decided to get a booster, or are considered immunodeficient. Boosters not on the list of eligible people (for example, elderly people living in non-CHSLD dwellings or people with Down Syndrome).
“They contribute to some of the cases we see,” Vinh said.
“Don’t compare apples and oranges” in hospitalization data
Another important thing to keep in mind is that it’s easy to compare hospitalized and non-hospitalized vaccinated people, but get an accurate picture of the current situation. I can not do it.
On the surface, seeing 8 people in vaccinated hospitals and 7 people in unvaccinated hospitals may seem to suggest that the vaccine is ineffective. ..
Dr. Donald Vinh is an infectious disease specialist at McGill University Health Center. (Watering can / CTV news)
On Wednesday, the latest state data showed 6,512,777 people from Quebec. Total population Two out of 8,574,571 people have been vaccinated, which is about 75 percent of the state.
If eight out of 6,512,777 people were sent to the hospital with the coronavirus, the hospitalization rate would be about 0.00012 percent.
However, if seven unvaccinated people are hospitalized, as on Wednesday, that percentage of the total unvaccinated population (about 2 million) is much higher at 0.00033 percent.
“It gives you a real reflection of how good the vaccine is,” Vinh said.
“For example, if you buy a bag of apples, you can put 20 apples in it. One of them can rot. You can … buy 5 orange bags, And one of them is rotten. And you can see and say that the number of rotten apples is equal to the number of rotten oranges, so they are both at the same rate It rots. But in reality, one in twenty cannot be compared to one in five, so that’s not the case. “
Two doses reduce hospitalization risk by 95%: study
Last week, Dr. Gaston Dessert, an epidemiologist at the Quebec Institute for Public Health (INSPQ), said Co-authored a study on the efficacy of double doses Vaccine type, dosing interval, and time from the second dose of people over the age of 18 in Quebec and British Columbia from May 30 to October 2, 2021.
This study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, showed that two doses of the vaccine were associated with a 95 percent reduction in the risk of hospitalization.
“”[Vaccine effectiveness] Studies have shown that at least one dose with the mRNA vaccine exceeded 90% for SARS CoV-2 infection, but both doses were as low as about 70% for ChAdOx1.
The vaccine is also said to be more effective against infection and hospitalization at intervals of 7-8 weeks between the first and second doses, compared to the manufacturer’s recommendations at intervals of 3-4 weeks. I did.
The data from this study also argued that the efficacy of the vaccine for hospitalization was stable 7 months after the second dose.
“We haven’t done enough to protect them.”
On Friday, Quebec reported that 21 people had been hospitalized with COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, and the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients was evenly divided into 10 (21 hospitalized). One of the people fired more than 7 days ago).
To help understand these numbers, the state has revealed that unvaccinated people are at a much higher risk of hospitalization.
Overall, unvaccinated Quebec people are now 18 times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated. The number, published daily by the state, takes into account data from the last 28 days and the total number of Quebecs vaccinated and unvaccinated.
Vinh, who regularly analyzes COVID-19 data, tells him that the number of vaccinated people admitted to the hospital is “not doing enough to protect them.” ..
“This is a sign of community failure, so they need to interpret it,” he said. “Well, if I’m vaccinated, I can still say that I can get infected and infect others. Yes, that’s true, but your transmission period is shorter. , And by shortening it, you actually reduce the transmission of the community. As long as you normally do it if you are not vaccinated, you will prevent the virus from spreading.
We hope we take advantage of these unfortunate hospitalizations to inspire us and say, “What do you know, let’s roll up our sleeves.” Do the best for the entire community by protecting the most vulnerable people. “
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