Scientists say the new, lower CDC estimate for COVID-19 severity is optimistic: Shot

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publishes planning scenarios to help public health officials deal with the coronavirus. The estimates they contain are considered optimistic by some experts.

Bloomberg / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Hide description

Switch caption

Bloomberg / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publishes planning scenarios to help public health officials deal with the coronavirus. The estimates they contain are considered optimistic by some experts.

Bloomberg / Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week revised down its estimates of future infections and mortality from the new coronavirus, depicting a pandemic that some scientists say is overly optimistic. pressure.

This week, the country’s best public health authorities are scientific parameter Shows previous views on pandemics. Too optimistic Abandoning measures by some experts—such as widening social distances and wearing masks to prevent the spread of the virus—is expected to kill hundreds of thousands of people, but it has improved.

By comparison with the new modeling document, CDC expects hospitals to see millions of fewer COVID-19 patients than they expect in mid-April. Previous internal version Obtained by Public Consistency Center In April. The agency, which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services, also expects to reduce the deaths of approximately 100,000 people during the pandemic.

The CDC’s current “best guess” is that in scenarios without additional social distance or other efforts to control the spread of the virus, approximately 4 million patients were hospitalized in the United States at COVID-19 and It means that a person will die over time. Of a pandemic. It ’s an agency New parameters Center for Public Integrity integrated into a simple epidemiological model.

“The planning scenario is used by math modelers across the federal government,” the CDC document reads. It may also be helpful to hospital administrators when assessing resource needs. ”

As of Friday, more than 95,000 people were killed in the US by COVID-19, according to the report. Johns Hopkins University Tracker.

The CDC and White House did not respond to requests for comment.

Half glass

New CDC Guide to Model Death and Hospitalization Shows How Politicians, Government Officials, and Healthcare Professionals Should Be Careful When the Coronavirus Is Deadly and When Resuming the Country’s Economy I stress that there are still disagreements about.

4 out of 7 professionals A previous consultation with Public Integrity found that CDC’s April mortality estimates were too low. Harvard epidemiologists leave revised numbers too optimistic William Hanage The above.

“If you’re using these numbers as your guide, they’re clearly lowball estimates,” he said.

Mortality in this document is “very low indeed” What scientists think is possible, Agreed Joseph Leonard, An epidemiologist at the University of California, Berkeley. “There is an urgent need for a clearer scientific basis for these estimates.”

The CDC document outlines five possible scenarios for the future of the pandemic: one “best guess”, two better cases, and two worse case versions. Since they are all “unrelieved,” future social distances, widespread mask use, or other efforts to contain the coronavirus are not considered.

According to non-partisan political reference sites, social distance practices between states in the United States are very different. Currently, dozens of states have lifted home orders, seven do not issue them, and 15 obligate residents to stay home if possible. Ballot book..

State and local officials can use the scenario as a baseline model to weigh different responses.

“Modeling is done to find results when you don’t want to find a difficult way,” Hanage said. “All models will be as good as their expectations.”

Another expert, Carlsburg Strom, University of Washington Biologist, Even the worst CDC scenario is realistically the best scenario. The agency’s worst-case mortality rates are more optimistic than recent high-quality coronavirus data on US mortality rates, he said. Spain.

“These [CDC] I think this is a deceptive and ironic endeavor to manipulate broader scientific discourse, as well as federal modeling, as the numbers go far beyond the range of scientific consensus. ” Bergstrom wrote on Twitter.

The latest CDC mortality rate is consistent with a set of estimates estimated by Stanford University’s medical professor. John Ioannidis Published in Analysis not yet peer reviewed Of antibody research worldwide.

Ioanidis champion Not a vigilant response to the coronavirus, Favor a quick restart, Fox News anchor, etc. Laura Ingraham,and Criticism From many public health professionals. He did not respond to requests for comment.

What does reduced hospitalization mean?

The new lower estimates of the CDC would still suggest far more hospitalizations and deaths than the annual tolls for seasonal influenza. However, they are lower than the numbers used in other influential models.

For example, the mortality rate is Imperial College London On all 50 state models.

The country’s healthcare system says the CDC’s projected 4 million hospital stays could potentially address months of unrelieved pandemics. Irwin redrainer, Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparation at Columbia University.

However, he suspects that Americans would like to see an estimated 500,000 deaths from such an approach. Herd immunity. that is Much more By comparison, the number of American soldiers who died in World War II.

“It’s not the right planning scenario for an advanced democracy. We need to be able to do more than that,” Red Renner said.

Coronaviruses do not spread uniformly throughout the country. Like all rapidly changing infectious diseases, it can be raging in some areas, while remaining relatively untouched in others. Experts said that people must look not only at the big picture of pandemic dangers, but also at the potential for sudden local surges that overwhelm hospitals.

“Think about New York,” Hanage said. “Consider where you were really badly hit.”

An early model created by the Harvard Global Health Institute in March, before many states placed home orders, Much higher Hospitalization rates were higher than the current number of CDCs, and we predicted that many communities would run out of hospital beds without being socially separated.

In the United States, 900,000 hospital bedsAccording to the American Hospital Association, many of them are already in use by patients with typical illnesses unrelated to COVID-19, at any time.

CDC has doubled the coronavirus mortality estimate. Early April To Mid-April, The resulting mortality estimate jumped from approximately 300,000 to 600,000 during the pandemic process, before being revised down in the current document. The hospitalization rate also rose in mid-April, but is now lower than any of the figures for April.

It is unclear whether the new CDC parameters are based on data received prior to April 29 or based on testing. Improperly mixed data Results for both antibodies and viruses Atlantic I reported on Thursday.

The combination of the two types of tests has resulted in suspicions among health professionals that political considerations have hurt the CDC’s data as the country’s virus testing capabilities have outperformed and scientific scientific views on the virus have been confused. I am.

The Harvard Global Health Institute said Thursday in a newsletter, “Unable to understand that CDC scientists make rookie mistakes that fool their own data unless politics interfere with their ability to do their jobs.” “.

Modifying parameters is normal when modeling an epidemic. As scientists learn more about viruses, they expect to revise the numbers used to describe their power and reach. The CDC document reflects this: “The parameter values ​​change as more data becomes available,” it says.

Some media outlets White House Authorities are private Official death toll While the coronavirus is inflated, experts say Excessive death COVID-19 mortality was shown to be probably incomplete.

The new CDC document focuses on that question. According to authorities, the pandemic may be worse than the official figures.

“Many cases and deaths have never been confirmed to be COVID-19,” the document reads.