The Future of COVID-Defense One

now Children 5-11 years old are eligible for COVID-19 vaccination And the number More and more people are fully vaccinated in the United States, Many people may wonder what Endgame is for COVID-19..

In the early days of the pandemic, it was not unreasonable to expect SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) to disappear. Historically, some pandemic viruses have simply disappeared.

For example, SARS-CoV, the first causative coronavirus 2003 SARS PandemicIt spread to 29 countries and territories and infected more than 8,000 people between November 2002 and July 2003. However, Rapid and effective public health intervention, SARS-CoV has not been observed in humans for almost 20 years and is now considered extinct.

Pandemic viruses, on the other hand, may gradually settle to a relatively stable incidence and maintain a constant pool of infected hosts that can spread the virus to others. These viruses are called “endemic”.

Examples of endemic viruses in the United States include cold When Seasonal flu It appears every year.Like these, the virus that causes COVID-19 probably won’t die, and most experts now expect it to die. Get endemic..

we A team of virologists and immunologists I am studying animal viruses that infect humans at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The essential focus of our research Identifying and explaining the major indications required for an animal virus to survive in a human population.

So why is it possible that the first SARS virus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 has become extinct and that this virus (SARS-CoV-2) is prevalent?

The ultimate fate of a virus depends on how well the virus remains infected. Generally speaking, a highly contagious virus, a virus that spreads very well from person to person, is so good at finding new people to infect that it does not die naturally.

When a virus first invades a non-immune population, its infectivity is defined by scientists using a simple mathematical term called R0, pronounced “R-naught.” This is also called the reproduction number. How many people do the virus reproduction numbers represent on average? Infecting each infected person.. For example, the R0 of the first SARS-CoV was about 2. This means that on average, each infected person will infect two people with the virus. For SARS-CoV-2 delta mutants R0 is between 6 and 7..

The goal of public health authorities is to slow the rate of spread of the virus.Universal masking, social distance, contact tracing, quarantine are all An effective tool to reduce the spread of respiratory viruses.. Due to the low infectivity of SARS-CoV, only a small amount of public health intervention was required to exterminate the virus. Given the high infectivity of delta variants, the challenge of eliminating the virus is much greater and the virus is more likely to become endemic.

It is clear that SARS-CoV-2 has been very successful in finding new people to infect and that people can be infected. Infect after vaccination.. For these reasons, the infection of this virus is not expected to end. It is important to consider why SARS-CoV-2 is so easy to move from person to person and how human behavior affects its viral infection.

SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus that spreads in the air and efficiently infects when people gather.Important public health interventions such as Use of masks and social distance, Is the key to delaying the spread of the disease. However, the failure of these public health measures can have dire consequences.For example, 2020 Motorcycle rally In the early stages of the pandemic, nearly 500,000 people gathered in Sturgis, South Dakota. Most of the attendees were unmasked and did not practice social distance.The event was directly responsible Increase in COVID-19 cases South Dakota and across the country. This shows how easily the virus can spread when people are not vigilant.

Viruses that cause COVID-19 are often Associated with Superspreader eventMany people are infected at one time, usually one infected person. actually, Our own work shows Only 2% of people infected with COVID-19 carry 90% of the viruses that are prevalent in the community. These important “supercarriers” have a disproportionate impact on transmission to others and will continue to be epidemic if the virus is not tracked before it spreads to the next person. Currently, there are no national screening programs aimed at identifying these individuals.

Finally, asymptomatic infected people give a rough explanation Half of all COVID-19 infections.. This, coupled with the wide range of times people can get infected – 2 days and 10 days after symptoms appear– People who are unaware that they are ill have many opportunities to get the virus because they generally take very few steps to isolate them from others.

The contagious and highly interconnected societies of SARS-CoV-2 constitute the worst situation that can contribute to the sustained spread of the virus.

Given the above considerations and what we know about COVID-19 so far, Many scientists believe The virus that causes COVID-19 is likely to settle into an endemic infection pattern. However, the inability to eradicate the virus does not mean that all hope is lost.

Our post-pandemic future depends heavily on how the virus evolves over the next few years. SARS-CoV-2 is a completely new human virus and is still adapted to new hosts. Over time, the pathogenicity of the virus may decrease. Four coronaviruses that cause colds, This is just a seasonal nuisance.

Global vaccination programs have the greatest impact on controlling new cases of the disease. However, previous SARS-CoV-2 vaccine campaigns have affected only a small proportion of people on the planet. father, Breakthrough infections in vaccinated people It still occurs because there is no 100% effective vaccine. This means that booster shots are likely to be needed to maximize protection against vaccine infections.

With global virus monitoring and the speed of developing safe and effective vaccines, we are poised to tackle our ever-evolving target, SARS-CoV-2. Influenza is endemic and evolves rapidly, but seasonal vaccinations allow you to continue your normal life. Ultimately, the same can be expected for SARS-CoV-2.

4 seasonal coronaviruses It is already prevalent in humans. They tend to recur each year, usually during the winter, affecting children more than adults. The virus responsible for COVID-19 has not yet settled in these predictable patterns and instead spreads unpredictably around the world in ways that can be difficult to predict.

When the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 stabilizes, it can be called endemic. However, this transition may vary depending on where you are in the world. For example, in countries with high vaccination rates and abundant boosters, the predictable surge in COVID-19 can quickly settle during the winter, when environmental conditions favor viral infections. In contrast, unpredictable epidemics can persist in areas with low vaccination rates.

This article will be republished from conversation Under a Creative Commons license.read Original work..