COVID-19: What does the end of the coronavirus pandemic look like?

COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) Seems to be here to stay.

It is unlikely that the world will be able to completely eliminate the coronavirus that causes COVID.

But the day will come when it is no longer a pandemic-when the case is no longer out of control and the hospital is not at great risk of being flooded with patients.

Many experts predict that the coronavirus epidemic will look and feel like seasonal flu.

What is not clear is when and how it happens.

“There isn’t even a measurement that something is epidemic or pandemic,” says Arnold Monto, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan in the United States.

“That is, this is not all rule-based.

“This is usually based on what you have to do to control the outbreak.

“The big difference here is that our vaccine is much more effective than what we usually see.”

The power of vaccines

According to Monto, the good news is the power of vaccines.

The bad news comes with the changing and evolving power of viruses.

No one can predict what the future of COVID will be. And the emergence of coronavirus mutants like Delta changed orbit.

“As variants emerged as transmission patterns changed (I call this a parade of variants), we now see a much wider range of transmissions and a much more uniform global spread,” Monto said. Mr. says.

“This makes it more difficult to declare the end of the pandemic.

“The whole pattern of spread has changed, and there may still be pockets that haven’t actually experienced the waves that other parts of the world have experienced.”

‘Watch what happens’

In the future, Monto and other public health leaders say the world can track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, in a manner similar to how seasonal influenza is monitored. I’m expecting it.

“I don’t know if we can see such a seasonal pattern in SARS-CoV-2, but it reminds us that most respiratory viruses begin to behave as seasonal events,” Monto said. say.

“Some of the coronaviruses that infect people have precedents for very seasonal patterns.

“I don’t know if SARS-CoV-2 will start to behave that way, but at least it gives us one scenario where it might start to behave that way.”

As Monto said, you have to “hold your breath, look, hold your breath” to understand what the coronavirus epidemic looks like.

Endemic and pandemic

What is endemic? Illness is always present In the population-but it doesn’t affect the surprising number of people commonly found in pandemics.

Even in early 2020, pandemics are on the rise, so World Health Organization officials say the new coronavirus is “Can be another endemic virus In our community “and never disappear.

“When you think of a pandemic, you are in the pandemic stage, then the deceleration stage, then the control stage, and hopefully you will eliminate and perhaps eradicate,” the National Institute. Says Anthony Fauci, Director of Allergies and Infectious Diseases US Senate on Health, Educational Labor and Pensions At the hearing on Thursday.

“What we want is a low level that, if not completely eliminated, does not have a significant impact on public health or our lives.

“What we want is a level that is low enough not to have a significant impact on public health, even if it is not completely eliminated.”

“So, if you vaccinate more people around the world and vaccinate more people now, you’ll reach a point where you can occasionally go up and down in the background within a reasonable period of time. Hope it doesn’t dominate our way, we’re doing it now. “

“I still have a lot to do”

To move from a pandemic to endemic, countries need to strengthen their immunity to the coronavirus. This means that more people around the world need to be vaccinated.

“We know there’s still a lot of work to be done to stop the COVID-19 epidemic and end the pandemic,” says CDC spokesman Kristen Nordland.

“(In the United States) there are still too many new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

“The average number of cases per day (US) exceeds 70,000 per day, with more than 1,000 deaths.

“This is why we encourage everyone over the age of 5 to be vaccinated to protect against COVID-19.”

Coronavirus Killed more than 750,000 people Only in the United States.

The annual fight against the coronavirus may be very similar to the annual fight against the flu.

“We’ve been thinking a lot about what the endemic stage looks like and the data we need to collect at that stage,” said Rochelle Walen, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ski said at a hearing of the US Senate Committee. last week.

“Certainly, we are currently collecting data on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

“The question is what will be the best indicator for the future, and we’re probably modeling it with the flu.”

Flu-like chase

In the United States, the CDC works with health departments, laboratories, hospitals, and healthcare providers to Follow cases of diagnosed influenzaIdentify the influenza viruses that are prevalent and measure the effects of those viruses on hospitalization and death.

One idea is that when a coronavirus epidemic occurs, a similar tracking system can be used to monitor the pathogen.

“We can handle cases as we would for seasonal flu. We know that many cases occur in winter, so we can allocate the right people. Kaiser Permanente is the national leader in infectious diseases. Stephen Parody said:

“Am I still on the phone talking about ICU bed capacity?

“What is the supply chain needed to provide care to patients? Do you have enough medicine?

“There is still a lot of work to be done to get to where we want to be. I think we will see this transition in 2022.

“But in some locales with low immunity, the execution time is longer.”

“Some locales with low immunity have longer execution times.”

Even the flu is unpredictable, and doctors have seen many flus over the years.

“We know that an incident will happen,” Monto said.

“For influenza, I had a previous experience of an influenza pandemic.

“So we usually know how they behave.

“This is an evolving situation with a whole new pathogen.”