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California sees a new surge in COVID-19 cases as booster shots are delayed

 


Angels- COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) Hospitalizations have increased significantly in California’s Riverside-San Bernier and Central Valley, raising new concerns as to whether this shift heralds a surge in COVID-19 in California as winter vacation approaches.

Throughout the state, both cases and hospitalizations peaked after months of decline. Hospitalizations were fairly flat in some areas with relatively high vaccination rates, such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

However, in some areas with low immunization rates, such as Riverside County, San Bernardino County, and Fresno County, hospitalizations have deteriorated, with hospitalizations increasing by more than 20% in recent weeks. In addition, hospitalizations for COVID-19 are increasing even in areas where the vaccination rate is relatively high. In Orange County, COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased by 16% since Halloween.

Health officials are new to COVID-19 in California as older people who took shots last winter and did not take booster shots began to see weakened immunity, which could increase the risk of infection. We warn about the possibility of a sudden rise. And as hospitalization, and as the weather cools and the holidays approach, people gather more indoors.

Demand for booster shots was lower than expected in California. And each infected Californian is spreading the coronavirus to more and more people. As of Saturday, computer models estimated that all infected Californians spread the virus to an average of 0.96 other people. When that number exceeds 1, the pandemic is ready for further expansion.

Authorities hope that strict vaccination requirements in some of California’s most populous areas will help delay the spread of winter cases. Los Angeles generally enforces new city rules requiring patrons to present proof of complete vaccination to enter venues such as indoor restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hair salons and nail salons. However, it will not be enforced until Thanksgiving is over.

Just a few weeks ago, San Joaquin Valley officials were optimistic that the trend was heading in the right direction. But now, officials said the hospital in Fresno County, the most populous county in the region, “has never really left the crisis,” said Dan Lynch, director of the Central California Emergency Medical Services Agency.

“Large hospitals are probably between 110% and 130% of their normal capacity, and they are all re-accommodating ICU patients in the emergency department,” Lynch said. “We see the hospital’s emergency department overwhelmed.”

Most hospitals have been forced to postpone scheduled surgery, and some patients with special care may need to be referred to other parts of California, officials say. rice field.

Most COVID-19 patients in need of hospitalization are unvaccinated people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, said Dr. Rais Vohra, Interim Health Officer in Fresno County. On Wednesday, Fresno County was forced to re-implement measures not to automatically transport all 9-1-1 patients to the emergency room. Authorities believed the surge in delta variants in the region had diminished and ended on October 22.

“When I was asked what I thought would happen two weeks ago, I really thought November would be a nice place to relax,” Vohra said. Well, “it was very humble just because this pandemic kept throwing curve balls at us and this November plateau is really busy with us.”

Of the five regions of California defined by the State Public Health Service, San Joaquin Valley has the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate, with 25 COVID-19 hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents. This is followed by the rural areas of Northern California (16 percentages) and the Greater Sacramento region (14 percentages).

The proportion of the entire state is 10, and the proportion of the two most populous regions is below that. Southern California has a percentage of 8 and the Bay Area has a percentage of 4. Some experts consider COVID-19 to be a sign of concern if the hospitalization rate is 5 or higher in all cases. 100,000 inhabitants.

Among the most populous areas of Southern California, the Riverside-San Bernardino has the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rates, with San Bernardino and Riverside counties reporting rates of 14 and 11, respectively. San Diego County reports 8. Orange County, 7; LA County, 6 and Ventura County, 4.

Since mid-October, COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased by more than 27% in both San Bernardino and Fresno counties. While in Riverside County, numbers have increased by 21% in the last two weeks.

Health officials were largely optimistic that the state’s relatively high levels of vaccination would prevent the condition from deteriorating to the catastrophic extent seen last fall and winter, but calendar changes have changed. There are many additional risks involved.

Even in the normally milder areas of California, colder weather will increasingly push people to gather indoors at higher risk of coronavirus infection. The coronavirus itself has a clear seasonality, and it becomes easier to spread when the temperature drops.

The holiday packed slate also tempts people to travel and gather, perhaps to the extent that it hasn’t been seen since the pandemic began.

Putting it all together, there is another powerful recipe for the resurrection of the potential coronavirus.

It’s already happening in other parts of the country.

“In well-vaccinated areas like New Hampshire and Vermont, you can see how these northernmost counties are outbreaks and infections are starting to grow, as in Alaska,” said the University of California, San Francisco Epidemiologist. Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert, recently said at the Campus Forum.

The largest concentration of coronavirus cases extends from Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, and Wyoming, and further south via Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Some states, such as Colorado (62.1%), have similar vaccination rates to 61.8% in California, such as Wyoming, where only 44.4% of the population is fully vaccinated. Like the state, it is found among the highest cases in the country. New Mexico (62.5%) and Minnesota (61.6%), Rutherford said.

That’s why Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota may have warned of future signs of California, Rutherford said. In these three states, there are three times the weekly case rate of coronavirus as reported by California. Wyoming is more than 3.5 times worse than California.

Rutherford said the LA, Orange and Ventura counties were doing well, relatively speaking, but warned that there were fairly high levels of cases in the San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

All of these factors suggest that unvaccinated people, including children aged 5 to 11 who just qualified last week, have an urgent need to get shots, Rutherford said. .. People who have recovered from COVID-19 still need to be immunized. Unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors are more likely to develop a new coronavirus infection than those who have never been completely vaccinated, according to a study published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Is 5 times higher.

Rutherford also said that people with immunodeficiency and the elderly need additional vaccinations to boost their immunity. According to the CDC, less than 33% of fully vaccinated California seniors over the age of 65 are boosted, “this is a major issue that needs to be addressed,” Rutherford said. ..

That means there is competition to boost more older people before their immunity is too weak, Rutherford said. A study published in the journal Science recently found that all three COVID-19 vaccines available to Americans lost some of their defenses, reducing vaccine efficacy in large groups of veterans by 35% to 85%. I showed that I did.

Some experts have already expressed hope that the worst pandemic is over and the next surge is unlikely. Other experts, including Rutherford, are less confident. Rutherford said California expects to “get out of the way by spring,” but November is probably in giving us clues as to how the rest of the fall and winter will unfold. It will be decisive.

“If we go out on the other side, get a high level of vaccination, and get a lot of vaccinations, I think we could really throw away the mask and get back to normal. “Razaford said. “It’s not unthinkable that the Bay Area and the urban areas of Southern California can actually leave with high levels of vaccination, especially if these young children can be vaccinated, what looks like herd immunity. Is born. “

Rutherford added: “If not, this needs to be longer.”

Part of the future of the pandemic in California will also depend on vaccination of more people around the world, reducing the risk of developing more problematic variants, Rutherford said.

LA County’s months-old obligation to wear masks in public indoor areas may be enforced until the end of the calendar year. Special state rules for so-called mega-events, originally set to expire this month, have instead been extended indefinitely.

“We’re worried about winter, to be honest,” LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a recent briefing. “We don’t like what we see in Europe. We know that this virus is seasonal, we can’t escape its reality. When the weather gets cold, here in LA County But we know that people go more indoors, and we know that holidays are coming. “

According to a recent survey commissioned by the American Hotel and Lodges Association, 29% of Americans say they are more likely to travel for Thanksgiving. This is an increase from 21% last year. 33% of respondents said they were more likely to do so at Christmas, up from 24% last year.

Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed said they plan to take a vacation somewhere within driving distance for a pandemic.

Unlike last year, health officials do not directly advise residents to avoid vacation trips. Instead, they reiterate the importance of taking precautionary measures.

“This is where you need to continue to practice the precautions you’ve been talking about from the beginning of this pandemic, whether you’re vaccinated or not. This is where you wash your hands often and wear a mask. A well-ventilated area that keeps the distance, “said Dr. Regina Chincio Kwon, Deputy Health Officer of Orange County.

Sources

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2/ https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/11/california-sees-new-surge-of-covid-19-cases-as-booster-shots-lag.html

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