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Covid-19 cases are on the rise again — is there a winter surge?

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Covid-19 case rates are rising again across the United States with experts concerned about the surge in potential winter cases, especially in areas with low vaccination rates.

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“New winter surge”

according to CDC Data show that daily Covid-19 cases in the United States have increased by nearly 27% in the last three weeks. As of November 14, the average daily number of cases for 7 days was 80,823, an increase from 63,852 cases on October 24.

Currently, NBC News reports an increase in cases of Covid-19 in 29 US states and territories. Especially in the Midwest and Northeast, NPR reports that outbreaks have expanded after significantly avoiding the surge during the summer.

As cases continue to grow nationwide, experts warn that this could be the beginning of a long-term winter Covid-19 surge. “I hate to say that, but I think we’re at the beginning of a new winter surge,” said epidemiologist George Rutherford. University of California, San Francisco..

“There is still a wide range of countries with poor immunity, and even among relatively well-vaccinated states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota and Vermont, persistent infections are seen,” he said. Added.

According to NBC News, Vermont, with a 72% vaccination rate, has seen a 60% surge in new Covid-19 cases in the last few weeks. Jan Carney, Vice Dean of Public Health University of Vermont‘NS Lerner Medical CollegeThe majority of the new Covid-19 cases were due to delta mutations that spread to unvaccinated people, although they said they had some breakthrough infections.

In New Hampshire, the number of cases of Covid-19 has increased significantly in the past few weeks, with the majority of these cases occurring among young people who are unlikely to be vaccinated, NBC News reports. increase.

“Given the current surge, almost one-third of new cases are in the younger age group,” said infectious disease specialist Aalok Khole. Cheshire Medical Center In New Hampshire. “Currently, people between the ages of 12 and 35 dominate the new cases, and many of this population are not single-vaccinated.”

What does the winter surge in Covid-19 cases look like?

According to the NPR, the severity of the potential winter surge in the United States depends on “the complex dynamics surrounding immunity.” For example, the summer surge experienced by the southern states may have helped build immunity that could prevent the winter surge. In contrast, other regions that did not experience a summer surge, such as many northern states, are now seeing an increase, but high vaccination rates may provide some protection. ..

“The real question is how big it will be and how real it will be, and my feelings are in New England and will hit the walls of vaccinated people,” he said. Brown University‘NS Faculty of Public Health..

“I think the Midwest and the Great Plains, where vaccination rates are low but no major delta surges, are very likely to suffer a significant number of infections weeks or months later,” Ja said. Said.

However, despite concerns about rising Covid-19 case rates, experts modeling the pandemic course are unlikely that a winter surge will result in the same levels of hospitalization and death as last year, NPR reports. doing.

“The majority of the population has some form of immunity,” said biostatistician Nicholas Reich, who runs the Covid-19 predictive model. University of Massachusetts Amherst.. “It feels really different about this moment — fewer people get infected.”

Hospitals may struggle with a small winter surge

Winter surges may not be as severe as expected, but even the slightest surge in Covid-19 cases can overwhelm hospitals, NPR reports.Many hospitals are already suffering from staff shortages and ICU stuffing, and some are activation Crisis standards for care.

“Increased hospitalizations are not only re-expanding medical resources, but also fighting other problems. Nationally, there are shortages of health care workers, burnout, and resilience problems.” Said Kore. .. “How we pay for the fare during the winter is probably a concern for all healthcare professionals today.”

Apart from this, Kense Graves, University of Utah HospitalThe hospital shut down the surge ICU due to a shortage of staff, and said patients had to wait 3-5 hours for the ICU bed. “Our resources and stamina are much less than they were a year ago,” she said.

However, some actions, such as “more vaccinated and vaccinated children,” may help limit the effects of the winter surge, Ja said. “So we’re in a stalemate. I don’t think we’re going to have a terrifying surge, but we can certainly imagine some of the countries that are seeing a modest surge as people get together. [for the holidays] And as the weather stays cold. “(stone, “shot” NPR, 11/16; Murphy et al., NBC News, 11/15; Breslin, Hill, 11/16)

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2/ https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2021/11/18/winter-surge

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