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So you are vaccinated. How much risk are you actually facing now?




UK data suggests in the case of Infected A person is vaccinated twice with Pfizer’s jab, halving the chance of passing Delta to a contact. For AstraZeneca, that’s about 25% less likely.

The combination of these two layers significantly reduces the risk of infection, according to an analysis led by the Doherty Institute. AstraZeneca is down 79% and Pfizer is down 93%.

“If you have a brand combination, it’s somewhere in between,” said James Wood, an infectious disease modeler at the University of New South Wales. “The simple message is: The vaccine is very effective against infections and serious illnesses.”

Third, uninfected people are also vaccinated and enjoy protection from infected friends.

Additional protections like masks and hand washing cut it further. An editorial just published in British Medical JournalThe best evidence, written by Professor Paul Glasziou of Bond University, suggested that wearing a mask, for example, reduces relative risk by 10 percent.

However, this overall risk is average. Some people have a low or high risk of getting infected, while others have a low or high risk of getting bad results if they get sick.

“We are facing a classic problem. Risk is quantified at the population level,” said Dr. Claire Hooker, an infectious disease risk communication expert at the University of Sydney.

The numbers are average and “don’t personally tell me where to land on the bell curve,” she said.

For example, all vaccines are less effective in protecting the most vulnerable older people from infection.

The effectiveness of the vaccine also changes over time. People two weeks after the second jab have the best protection.Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops from 93% To 53% after 4 months.

Second, there are serious illnesses and hospitalization problems.

AstraZeneca offers 88-94% efficacy and Pfizer offers 75-100% efficacy.

Vaccination depends on age and duration of vaccination, but is far less than prevention against infection.

Pfizer is 95% effective against serious illnesses and hospitalizations for people between the ages of 40 and 64, even after 5 months.

But for people over the age of 65, that drops to 90 percent. For people over the age of 65 who are classified as “very vulnerable,” it drops to 71%.

Determining whether these risks are worthwhile is difficult and requires clear thinking, Dr. Hooker said.

“If I took COVID back to my older mother and she got seriously ill, would that be an area of ​​insane regret for me?”

If you want to keep your risk at zero, you can’t leave the house. But most people want to get back to something that’s getting closer to normal life, Dr. Hooker said.

“I bought a theater ticket. I can’t wait. I’m going, and don’t worry that this means my kids will get a COVID. I’m at risk. Accept the degree, and fact luck is involved. The quality of life of my decision-making, and what gives me joy. “

Liam Mannix’s Examine newsletter explains and analyzes science with a strict focus on evidence. Sign up to get it every week..




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