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Mathematical models show how SARS-CoV-2 mutants affect pandemic trajectories.




This model helps researchers and public health authorities interpret the importance of existing variants and design public health responses for different scenarios based on the characteristics of the variants.

The SARS-CoV-2 variant, which has similar properties to the delta variant, such as improved transmission and the ability to infect previously infected / vaccinated individuals, is more infected than variants with only one of these properties. Causes a more serious pandemic that accompanies. According to the results of a mathematical model by Harvard TH Chan Public Health School.

This model helps researchers and public health authorities interpret the importance of existing variants and design public health responses for different scenarios based on the characteristics of the variants.

The survey results have been published at cell..

“So far, evidence of immune avoidance, the ability of mutants to evade the immune system and cause reinfection and breakthrough infections, has been a danger signal,” said Mary Bush, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard Chan School’s Epidemiology Department. Mann states. In the statement. “According to our findings, it’s probably like a yellow flag. It’s not that big of a problem in itself, but it can be a huge problem when combined with improved communication.”

Researchers have determined that mutants with enhanced transmissibility are more dangerous than mutants that can partially evade the immune system. However, studies have shown that variants with both traits can cause more infections, reinfections, and breakthrough infections than variants with only one trait.

They also found that vaccination prevents more cases caused by more contagious viruses, and that the milder nature of breakthrough infections should significantly reduce overall mortality, so delta-like mutations. We have found that it is expected to be very beneficial in the case of the body.

As the pandemic progresses, COVID-19 variants have emerged, but not all variants, including beta variants, affect the pandemic orbit. However, some strains, such as Alpha and Delta variants, have become more predominant.

According to the authors of the study, the analysis showed several different virtual variants, including combinations of properties associated with alpha, beta, and delta variants: enhanced transmissibility, partial antigenic escape, and enhancement, respectively. Transmissible and partial antigenic escape, and variants that have neither property.

In addition, the analysis considered how variables such as masking, social distance, and vaccination affect the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For each scenario, researchers analyzed the total number of infections and the number and proportion of infections caused by vaccination.


SARS-CoV-2 mutants such as Delta are most likely to increase the severity of the pandemic. Eurek Alert. news release. November 19, 2021. Accessed on November 22, 2021. https: //




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