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Has Sweden made a fatal mistake with Covid 19?

 


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One of the most controversial of many controversial Covid-19 statistics is Infectious Mortality (IFP). This is the percentage of people infected with Covid-19 who die from the infection.

This is probably the most important statistic we need to know, as it determines how long a population takes to immunize in the absence of a vaccine and how many people die in the process.

Herd immunity, the epidemic of Nirvana, occurs when the proportion of a population that is immune to future infections becomes dying because new infections can no longer spread. For Covid-19, about 60 out of 100 people must be infected or vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

At any time, IFP can be used to estimate the actual number of people in an already infected population. Therefore, one can estimate how close the population is to achieving collective immunity.

Unfortunately, the number of Covid-19-infected cases reported in most countries misses so many and cannot be used for this purpose. Although IFPs are known to increase significantly with increasing age, estimates of mean IFP vary widely. Estimates have estimated an estimated 1 death for every 1,000 infections, which is an approximate IFP for influenza, while other estimates have resulted in more than one death for every 100 infections.

The true value of 1 death per 1000 infections has a radically different implication from the true value of 1 death per 100 infections.

The latest evidence based on large antibody studies just reported in France and Spain suggest that the average IFP for Covid-19 is about 1 death per 100 infections, which is based on previous estimates. Is the upper limit.

In most countries, Covid-19-related deaths per million have already been reported, so assuming that the IFP kills 1 person per 100 infections, Covid-19 deaths per million people Multiply the number by 100 to get a rough approximation. Covid-19 infections per million.

Lena Hallengren, Swedish Minister for Health and Social Affairs, will watch healthcare professionals perform Covid-19 tests at Alvsjo in Stockholm. AP Photo / Jonas Ekstromer, TT

Lena Hallengren, Swedish Minister for Health and Social Affairs, will watch healthcare professionals perform Covid-19 tests at Alvsjo in Stockholm. (AP photo / Jonas Ekstromer, TT)

For example, in Spain, there are currently about 600 deaths from Covid-19 per million, so multiplying this mortality rate by 100 yields about 60,000 infectious diseases per million (or six out of every 100 people). Infectious disease) has already occurred.

This is a much lower number of infections than would be expected in a country that is already in great distress.

Unfortunately, that means herd immunity is a very long way for Spain, and more deaths unless the virus is eliminated.

Unlike most other high-income countries, Sweden has carefully chosen a relatively conservative approach to dealing with pandemics. The level of restriction was sufficient to flatten the infection curve. As a result, healthcare services are not as overwhelming as in Spain and elsewhere, but they are not enough to prevent the infection from spreading slowly throughout the population.

The only logical reason for Sweden to deliberately choose this approach is that it needs to aim for herd immunity, even though it sits on a fence when challenged for this.

In addition, if you are aiming for herd immunity, you must believe that IFP is closer to 1 death per 1000 infections than 1 death per 100 infections. Otherwise, the costs will be too high, as outlined below.

Anders Tegnell, a national epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Service, hears updates on the situation of the Coronavirus Covid-19 in Stockholm. AP Photo / Claudio Bresciani via TT

Anders Tegnell, a national epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Service, hears updates on the situation of the Coronavirus Covid-19 in Stockholm. (AP photo / Claudio Bresciani, via TT)

So far, about 4,000 people have died in Swedish Covid-19. It has a population of 10 million (equivalent to 2000 deaths in New Zealand, not 21). Therefore, the current mortality rate in Sweden is less than 400 per million. If a true IFP is about 1 death per 1000 infections, then about 40 out of every 100 Swedish should have already been infected. It is the road to 60 out of 100 needed to achieve herd immunity, and about 2,000 more deaths would be expected in the process.

However, if the true IFP is about 1 death per 100 infections (the current best estimate), the implications are very different. About 4 out of 100 people are already infected, not 40 out of 100. This means that at current rates of infection, Sweden may take more than two years to reach herd immunity, potentially killing an additional 56,000 lives in the process.
Effective treatments are developed.

This additional 56,000 deaths aren’t chosen in the air, but it’s easy to calculate. If 60 out of 100 people need to be infected to achieve collective immunity, then 6 million out of 10 million in Sweden will need to be infected. If the IFP is one death per 100 infections, one in every 100 of these 6 million infected people (or 60,000) will die. Since 4000 have already died, 56,000 can still die.

Rod Jackson. Photo / offer

Rod Jackson. (Photo / Included)

If New Zealand had half the population of Sweden and had a Swedish approach to Covid-19, then, as some have suggested, divide the Swedish figure by about 2 to see its effect.

As mentioned above, instead of 21 dead there would have already been 2000 dead. of
Of even greater concern, this will probably rise to 30,000 before the herd’s immunity is achieved in 2022.

In addition to this depressing scenario, despite the relatively low levels of restrictions, the Swedish economy is expected to suffer in the short term as badly as its European neighbors, to maintain the spread of the infection at its current rate. It can be exacerbated if continuous restrictions are required.

Expect true IFPs to be well under 1 death per 100 infections for Sweden. If not, it would have made a fatal mistake-it will be much worse if the infection does not guarantee immunity.

Despite a much higher mortality rate than any other Sweden, the rate of people with antibodies to Covid-19 in Stockholm is only 7.3 per 100, according to a new study after completing this article.

Unfortunately, this is in line with the worst-case scenario estimates presented here. The conclusion is as follows. “Sweden has made a fatal mistake.”

In light of this new evidence, Aotearoa New Zealand has only taken wise action if there is no vaccine or effective treatment. Australia and other countries need to focus their efforts on the same removal strategies.

• Rod Jackson is a Professor of Epidemiology at the Faculty of Population and Health at the University of Auckland.

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