Omicron: Best and worst scenarios, according to experts

Experts are planning what the spread of Omicron strains will look like and are back with results ranging from the best scenario to the worst scenario.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) say they used data to study how Omicron communicates over the next few months.

But even with the most positive results, the effects of Omicron are expected to be serious.

Assuming the same level of disease as the delta variant, the countries may face as new variants become established:

read more: Omicron’s “first” symptoms in 90% of identified cases

The most optimistic scenario

The most optimistic outlook is that Omicron’s antigenic escape from the vaccine is low and booster jabs are highly effective.

However, even in this situation, a wave of infection is predicted, with more than 2,000 per day with 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between December 1st and April 30th, 2022. It can lead to peak hospitalization.

The most pessimistic scenario

In the worst case, the vaccine has a high degree of anti-immunity and the booster immunity is less effective.

This wave of infection can lead to a peak of hospitalization that is approximately twice the peak seen in January 2021 if no additional control measures are taken.

According to a study that has not yet been peer-reviewed, this can lead to 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths.

What do scientists say?

Dr. Rosanna Bernard of the Mathematical Modeling Center for LSHTM Infectious Diseases, who co-led the study, said: “These early predictions help us to understand the potential future in a rapidly evolving situation.

“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in early 2022 will be mitigated by mild management measures such as working from home.

“But our most pessimistic scenario suggests that the NHS may have to withstand stricter restrictions in order not to be overwhelmed.

“Masks, social distance and booster jabs are essential, but may not be enough.

“No one wants to withstand another blockade, but if Omicron has a significant level of antigenic escape or other high transmission rates compared to Delta, a last resort to protect medical services. May be required.

“It is important for decision makers to consider not only epidemiology, but the broader social impact of these measures.”

Omicron reality

Many experts have already stated that Omicron is more contagious and expects to rapidly overtake Delta as the predominant mutant.

Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases, meets people infected with the Covid-19 mutant unless they are “living a hermit” because of the rapid expansion of Omicron. He said the possibility was “very high.”

Scholars at the University of Edinburgh also warned that “many people” could be admitted to the hospital, even if the coronavirus mutation proved to cause milder symptoms than the delta variant.

She told the BBC Radio 4 Today Program: I think it is very dangerous to compare South African data with the United Kingdom and other countries.

“Even though it is milder and therefore a smaller percentage of infected people will be hospitalized, only a small percentage of many people, considering that so many people will encounter this virus. Even many people are hospitalized. “

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“These results suggest that Omicron can cause a significant surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England,” a scientist wrote. I’m reading.

“Additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may need to be reintroduced to prevent hospitalizations above the levels seen in the United Kingdom during the previous peak of the winter of 2020-2021.”

When experts are looking for more information about new strains, they believe it may “avoid vaccines to a large extent”.

“These are early estimates, but overall, they suggest that Omicron is rapidly surpassing Delta by avoiding vaccines to a large extent,” said Dr. Nick Davis of CMMID, who co-led the new study. I am. “

Protection in transit

These scenarios may be realized if additional controls are not implemented in addition to the current Plan B introduced by the UK Government.

Teams that also belong to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group (SPI-M) on Modeling or the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency (Sage) simply wear masks, work from home, and do booster jabs. Says that it may be inadequate and predicts a peak of 2,400 daily hospitalizations in January.

If the best scenario occurs, at the beginning of 2022, we will introduce management measures such as limiting indoor hospitality, closing some entertainment facilities, limiting the number of people who can gather in one place, and so on. Enough to effectively manage and reduce. They say there are 53,000 hospitalizations and 7,600 deaths.

However, in the worst-case scenario (high vaccine evasion and low boost efficacy), modelers need strong steps to keep peak hospitalizations below the January 2021 peak. It states that it may become.

In the report that Plan C’s proposal, which features stricter rules, has been made, none of the 10 companies in the UK claim that they have “no plans” to take further steps.

“The booster program significantly reduces the impact of Omicron in the UK,” Dr. Davis added, as it is difficult to predict the true level of protection provided by a double dose of AstraZeneca and Pfizer. Encouraged to accept the proposal.

On Friday, an analysis by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) found that the AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines provide a “much lower” level of protection against symptomatic infections of Omicron compared to Delta. rice field.

However, the UKHSA urged people to use boosters, saying that booster doses provide about 70% to 75% protection against symptomatic infections of Omicron.

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