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Deadly COVID wave could hit Britain

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December 12, 2021-UK-based scientists say the wave of Omicron-dominated COVID-19 cases will hit 25,000 to 75,000 in the UK in the coming months, unless the government imposes further restrictions. It states that it can cause death.

Researcher London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) used a new computer model to generate predictions based on “latest data on antibody avoidance properties of Omicron variants.” They emphasized that new data could change their predictions.

The best scenario would be 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between December 1, 2021 and April 30, 2022, LSHTM said in a news release.

This scenario involves reapplying control measures such as Omicron’s low “antigenic”, high booster effect, and limited indoor hospitality.

In the worst-case scenario, LSGTM reported that 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths could occur during that period. Hospitalizations in the UK will double from the previous peak in January 2021.

This scenario assumes high antigenic escape, low booster effect, and no additional control measures.

“These are early estimates, but by avoiding the vaccine to a large extent, they suggest that Omicron as a whole is rapidly surpassing Delta. If current trends continue, Omicron will be available until the end of December. May account for half of the UK cases, “said Nick Davis, MD, who co-led the study.

One of the researchers, Dr. Rosanna Bernard, pointed out that no one knows exactly how Omicron behaves.

“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in early 2022 will be mitigated by mild management measures such as working from home,” she said. Restrictions to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed. Wearing a mask, social distance, and booster jabs are essential, but may not be sufficient. “

The Omicron variant was detected in South Africa last month. Early studies have shown that it spreads faster than the delta variant, but does not cause less serious illness.

Trends in COVID that began in the United Kingdom, such as the epidemic of delta variants, often occur in the United States and are closely monitored by US health authorities.

Between December 1st and 8th, 43 Omicron cases were detected in the United States with no deaths. CDC It is mentioned in the weekly morbidity and mortality reports on Friday.

In addition, no Omicron-related deaths have been reported worldwide, said Amesh A. Adalja, MD, an infectious disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Health and Security Center. Prevention this week.

“We don’t have enough information yet to make a definitive assessment of the variant, but every day we learn more,” he says. “It is unclear how” deadly “this variant is, as no deaths have been reported so far, but deaths have been delayed. “

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