Health
Omicron overtook Delta in the United States. But that’s not all bad news.
The details about the Omicron variants are still rough, but the picture is emerging – and that’s not all bad news.
Omicron variants dominate the world, Extrude the previous delta variantScientists are rushing to understand how the coronavirus pandemic can change, and are now in their third year.
So far, it is clear that Omicron is highly contagious, about twice as contagious as Delta and four times as contagious as the original virus.
Experts are worried that even if it’s not so toxic, it’s still not clear, but it can still be the cause. Sufficient hospitalization to overwhelm the medical system At home and abroad.
Inbox latest COVID update:Sign up for Coronavirus Watch here.
But this is not 2020. At that time, only a handful of people on the planet were exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Everyone’s immune system wasn’t ready.
Today, the majority of Americans Either contract COVID-19 Or have been Vaccination once, twice or three times against it.. There are no definite numbers yet to confirm that, but it should provide people with protection against severe illness and death.
Dr. Paul Offit, a pediatric infectious disease expert and director of the Vaccine Education Center, said: Philadelphia Children’s Hospital.
What is unclear is what happens if someone who has never been vaccinated or contracted for COVID-19, or whose protection has declined significantly over time, catches Omicron.
Galit Alter, an immunologist and virologist at Harvard University School of Medicine and Ragon, said the hamster experiment should show results on Tuesday and how if people far away from infection or vaccination are infected. He said it would be the first to show if it would work. MGH, MIT, and Harvard University.
People previously vaccinated or infected are more infected with Omicron before Variants and data are shown. However, those who have been vaccinated, and perhaps already infected, are unlikely to infect others with the virus.
Ofit said that it is still unvaccinated and unprotected that provides an opportunity for the pandemic to continue.
“There is a significant proportion of the population that has not been vaccinated and is shedding this virus,” he said.
South Africa experience
Data from South Africa, where Omicron was an early hit and carefully followed the case, are still incomplete but promising.
South African epidemiologist, infectious disease expert, and Massachusetts Consortium on pathogen preparation.
According to Karim, only about 2% to 4% of infected people are hospitalized this time, compared to about 20% of previous beta and delta waves. Previously, two-thirds of hospitalized patients were thought to be severely ill. Currently, only about a quarter meet that standard. Mortality is one tenth that of previous variants.
“The clinical picture we see is one of the less severe illnesses,” he said.
Karim said he wouldn’t There is still information About the number of inpatients He expects to get it soon, but was previously infected or vaccinated.
Anecdotally, Karim said that hospitals were “overwhelmingly unvaccinated.”About 75% of patients. “Is that group tougher? What’s the photo? I don’t know at this point because I don’t have that data.”
The South African Public Health Service recently decided that people exposed to infected people but not yet infected do not need to be quarantined.
Karim said he recommended his government’s re-enactment order to minimize the crowd. Authorities did not accept his advice. But the general public continued on their feet.
“The theater is empty. The restaurant is half empty with only a handful of people,” he said. “People came to that conclusion on their own … is it an indoor gathering? No. No.”
Undoubtedly, Omicron is more contagious than other variants, with approximately 35,000-45,000 cases in South Africa in the first month of beta and delta waves and 133,000 cases in the first month of Omicron.
Other countries, such as Denmark, also have high infection rates and low rates of serious illness.
But unlike other variants that slowly progressed from country to country, Omicron is exploding around the world at the same time, said Dr. Jacob Lemie, a doctor on the infectious disease staff at Massachusetts General Hospital.
“In the previous wave, it took weeks to see what was happening in Western Europe and elsewhere and to know what we were looking for,” he said. Not this time. “We are not going to have the luxury of seeing in advance what will happen in our country elsewhere.”
Outbreak in the United States
Omicron’s experience in the United States is still in its infancy, As of Saturday, he has already overtaken Delta at a modeling show in the United States. Omicron variants explained For 73.2% of new COVID-19 infections nationwide, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an increase from 12.6% last week.
“It’s clear that we’re sitting on the waves of Omicron right now,” Remu said. “The question is how serious it will be.”
It may follow the South African pattern, and the vast majority of people are no worse than a terrible head cold. Or it could cause more hospitalizations, especially among those with weakened or unprotected people, and could overwhelm the healthcare system that was already dealing with the wave of delta infections. He said.
The Texas Children’s Hospital is still waiting to confirm the number of cases of Omicron vs. Delta, but the COVID-19 hospitalization rate for children has more than doubled and the number of patients has doubled in just four days. ..
According to James Versalovich, co-chair of the COVID-19 Command at the Texas Children’s Hospital and pathologist at the hospital, the percentage of positive tests was well below 5% five days ago, but 15% on Monday. Soared to.
“These are signals that we are starting to surge,” Versalovic said. “Currently, all displays point in the same direction.”
It is not yet clear if the children will react to Omicron as they did to Delta. The hospital also has vaccination status for children over 5 years old (children under 5 years old are not yet allowed), vaccination status for parents, or children previously infected with COVID-19. I still don’t know if there is any.
Dr. Eric Topol of the Scripps Research Translational Institute said he had heard case reports that Omicron infections are different from Delta. People do not appear to lose their sense of smell or taste, as they did in previous variants.
If so, it would be very good news, Topol said, because it means that this variant is not in the brain and will remove the potential risk of future neurological problems. from.
Omicron also does not appear to invade lung cells, according to two studies in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. “It was the most striking feature (of COVID-19) to date,” Topol said, and why it caused so much lung damage. “I know some people who have a really high fever (at Omicron),” he said. “No one has pneumonia.”
Future outlook
Of course, it remains uncertain what will happen with this virus in the future.
Dr. Jeremy Luban, another member of the Massachusetts Pathogen Preparation Consortium, said, “Whether the virology community has seen whether this creature has a great surprise for us, or has seen most of what it can do. Is divided into 50:50. ” Said on the phone on Monday.
He and others were surprised to see how many differences Omicron was from its predecessor variant, without any apparent intermediate changes. “The virus may be doing something that isn’t under our magnifying glass, and we can’t really see it,” he said.
thisWhen it became more contagious, Luban said he might have given up some of its ability to cause harm.
Eventually, the variant will become so dominant that no one else can beat it, slowing the pace of change, Karim said. Some experts thought that Delta had reached that point. He thinks there are some variations left in the future.
Until then, and to combat Omicron’s protracted uncertainty, he and others said everyone should be vaccinated, boosted, masked, open windows, and avoid crowds. ..
“We learned the same lesson over and over,” Ruban said. “The virus is transmitted in a closed space where many people gather, and the mask works.”
Please contact Karen Weintraub ([email protected]).
Health and patient safety coverage at USA TODAY was partially made possible by grants from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.
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