Greater Boston may have passed the latest coronavirus peak, new wastewater data show

According to new wastewater data from the Massachusetts Water Resources Department tracking system, virus levels in wastewater in the Boston area appear to have dropped from their latest peak. -19 cases. This is a development that will make public health experts cautiously optimistic, and Boston will soon overcome the worst wave of the Omicron-fueled coronavirus.

According to the latest data, COVID levels average about 6,000 RNA copies per milliliter, down from a peak of about 10,000 in recent weeks.That data corresponded to High level Number of cases — over 20,000 per day in the past week State Health Department figures, More than double the previous count of Massachusetts.

Nour Sharara, a public health scientist at Biobot Analytics, a Cambridge-based company that operates MWRA’s tracking system, said: .. “And this is similar to what happened in South Africa. In South Africa, we expect to see something like a rapid fall by the time it begins to fall.”

Dr. Shira Delon, an epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, said on Tuesday that the new numbers provide a faint light of hope that the Boston area will soon turn a corner.

“We try not to make predictions about this virus because it always causes loops. But in this particular case, it follows in the footsteps of South Africa and has a sharp drop like them. I wanted to be seen. “She said. “We may have seen peaks and slow declines, as we saw in Delta before the advent of Omicron, but at least wastewater suggests a sharp decline, so cases also decline sharply, Then it means to be hospitalized and death will continue. “

Dr. Birhanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said it is important to continue mitigation efforts to protect vulnerable groups, despite signs that the number of cases will soon decline. increase.

“We still need to worry about infections in the elderly, especially in unvaccinated adults. This can be a problem for some time. Therefore, give up mitigation measures to protect these age groups. It shouldn’t be, “Hanage wrote in an email to GBH News. “It’s also unclear if the reopening of school or other contact changes will result in a long tail in the case.”

Sharara warned that the Federation has not yet left the forest, as they are falling from high numbers while the levels of COVID in the wastewater are falling.

“I think this is the next thing we want to see in wastewater, it’s down, is it going to be a plateau? Or it falls really fast and hopefully as much as what we do. Will you return to a lower level Was it before the Thanksgiving Day? “She said.

Sharara said wastewater has been closely tracking clinical case data since the pandemic began and is optimistic that the number of cases will continue to decline in the coming days.

“I hope this is good news for our community and also good news for the healthcare system,” she said. “Of course, hospitalization is always delayed by about two weeks and death is delayed by about three weeks, so I think this effect can be seen in a few weeks. As I said earlier, the level of wastewater is still high, but it’s reassuring. On the way. “

Delon recalled that Massachusetts’ health care system had already been taxed. Even if the COVID-19 case was the lowest in June last year.

“Then Delta came [in the fall] And it was already pushing us to the limit, “she said. “And it’s not really difficult because we couldn’t afford this Omicron wave. It’s only between extra COVID patients and a large number of staff illnesses …. It’s almost impossible to manage.”

Sharara added that just because the amount of drainage has dropped does not mean that it cannot be restored.