Mayo model predicts Omicron peak in Minnesota next week

The Mayo Clinic COVID-19 model predicts that a record wave of coronavirus infections in Minnesota will peak on January 26 and decline rapidly.

The surge in Minnesota’s fifth pandemic wave is welcome news, with Tuesday’s state reporting an additional 10,651 infections and 29 COVID-19 deaths. Tuesday’s report, which renewed Minnesota’s pandemic activity until 4 am on Friday, included three deaths in Minnesota under the age of 50, increasing the state’s casualties in the pandemic to 11,000.

According to co-creator Curtis Story, the Omicron variant is fueling the waves, and the Mayo model has learned from its spread elsewhere. The peak can be from Saturday at the earliest to February 1 at the latest.

“In Minnesota, things just go up and down, but there are many places in the country that go up and down right now,” he said. “We have now seen peaks in several places, which gives the model more information.”

State health leaders warned that the consequences of hospitalizations, deaths, and delays in infections could continue to increase in the weeks following the peak.

Hospitalization by COVID-19 in Minnesota increased from 1,329 on January 2nd this month to 1,610 on Monday. However, the number of cases requiring intensive care decreased from 283 to 248 during that period. This reflects the low incidence of serious illnesses caused by Omicron.

COVID-19, influenza, and other medical concerns combined filled 977 of the 1,013 adult intensive care beds available in Minnesota on Monday. The bed was a teenager.

Infection rates in Minnesota remain at record levels until peak and remain high for days or weeks thereafter, with sufficient numbers of people gaining immunity from vaccination or previous infections to spread the virus. I will delay it. The positive rate for state diagnostic tests reached 22.2% in the seven days leading up to January 7.

Dann Huff, Vice-Chairman of the Minnesota Department of Health, said:

The per capita infection rate in Minnesota is the highest in the pandemic, despite the growing popularity of the COVID-19 home rapid antigen test, which has not been reported to the state. Minnesota’s prevalence remained at 38th place nationwide last week, but is rising despite lower prevalence in Florida, New York, and other states with early Omicron exposure.

“That’s the silver lining,” said Matt Vinicker, Dean of the Department of Clinical Virology at Mayo. “It’s a crazy roller coaster ride that soars to a peak and then plunges from there.”

Mayo’s prediction is similar to the Washington State Institute for Health Metrics’ prediction that the Minnesota peak had already occurred on Monday.

State leaders hope that progress in vaccination in Minnesota has slowed the severity of the Omicron wave. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 4 million Minnesota people have been vaccinated with at least the first COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 77% of eligible residents over the age of 5 have received it.

More than half of fully vaccinated people receive boosters, which helps reduce the risk of severe COVID-19, hospitalization, and death. Minnesota ranks second in the state in terms of booster rate.

A fully vaccinated Minnesota breakthrough infection remains a concern. The state on Tuesday reportedly accounted for 46% of the 18,039 infectious diseases recorded during the week leading up to December 18. From% of the last week of October to 27% of mid-December — may show protective effects at booster doses.

The rate of COVID-19 hospitalization involving fully vaccinated Minnesota decreased from 35% to 25% during the same period when Omicron replaced Delta as the major coronavirus strain.

Minneapolis-based Allina Health reported on Monday that 254 of the 440 COVID-19 hospitalizations were related to unvaccinated people. Of the 52 patients who were on mechanical ventilation due to severe lung injury, 44 were unvaccinated and 8 were fully vaccinated but had no boost. The system reported 60 COVID-19 hospitalizations, including patients who were fully vaccinated with boosters, but did not require mechanical ventilation.

Minnesota enjoyed a short stretch of low COVID-19 activity in June, after which the fading alpha variant was replaced by a faster spreading delta. The immunity of early vaccinated people began to weaken six months after the first injection, prolonging the wave.

The emergence of new waves after Omicron is still possible, Story said, and people should continue to look for boosters and follow public health guidance.

“We’re going to spend the honeymoon period,” he said. “Then we don’t know? Omicron suddenly came out. You can’t really predict it.”