Health

Coronavirus mortality higher than expected after thousands of cases arrived in the UK before government realized

Coronavirus struck Britain more than expected due to arrivals from Spain and Italy, experts said. (PA)

Britain got worse Coronavirus More cases than expected, with numerous cases arriving from Spain and Italy before the experts were aware.

Neil Ferguson, professor at Imperial College in Britain, said Tuesday that the work resulted in a lockdown, saying Britain was more concerned about arrivals from China, other Asian countries, and the United States than Europe.

Instead, a large number of people infected with COVID-19 flew in from Spain and Italy, saying that the full implications for domestic outbreaks are unknown at this time, a few weeks before the British case surged.

Professor Ferguson said that this partly explains why the epidemic is much worse than previously expected.

Early empire modeling, published a few days after lockdown was implemented at the end of March, It is possible to reduce the number of British deaths to 6,000 by increasing social distance.. Before that, the empire modeled the death of 20,000 people A containment strategy has been introduced to contain transmissions.

instead of, UK now has close to 50,000 COVID related deathsOfficially recorded by the government at 39,000, the second worst official toll in the world after the United States.

Professor Ferguson told the House of Science and Technology Commission that Britain “has been affected far more than previously expected,” and “if not one of Europe’s largest epidemics.”

“One of the things genetic data is showing us right now is Spain, where some of the most contagious chains of transmission that still exist in Britain started in Italy to some extent,” Ferguson said. Those who quit Sage, the government’s scientific advisory body After breaking the rules of social distance,

“We were worried about importing the infection from China. We are very connected countries in the world, other Asian countries, and perhaps the United States.

“But even before we can measure it, if not the thousands, who entered the country in late February and early March from the area before the surveillance system was set up. , It is clear that there were hundreds of infected people.

“And that means the epidemic is far more advanced than we expected, which explains some of the acceleration of policy at the time, but to some extent, the mortality rate we expect I’m explaining that it was higher than I did.”

Government will carry out 14-day quarantine for new arrivals from June 8.. In other countries, including South Korea and the United States, quarantine for early arrivals of outbreaks was conducted.

Australia bans flights from China and anyone who was there within two weeks of arrival, One expert believes it helped prevent a large outbreak in the country.

But England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Vantham said at a news conference in April scientists had revealed that closing the border was “not going to work.”

Epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson was speaking to the House Committee. (Reuters)

“I understand what you’re saying, and I’m seeing where you are coming from when it comes to controlling this, it doesn’t change the situation.” He told reporters.

“But it doesn’t go from a position of widespread community contagion among our people to a position of zero epidemic among our people. Of course it was in December 2019.

“We are likely to return to low levels of infection and the virus continues to exist in and around our community. Even if we could keep the levels low, I doubted for a very long time. I am.”

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