Both San Francisco and New York City are first COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when first appearing Incident during the first week of March. March 16 San Francisco announcement He instructed the residents to stay home to avoid the spread of the coronavirus. New York did the same In less than a week. But by the end of May, San Francisco 43 death COVID-19 shows the death toll in New York City Over 20,000..
What explains the clear difference in COVID-19-related mortality between these two cities? Are you responsible for delays in home orders? What about the city-specific measures taken to mitigate COVID-19 prior to ordering? is there anything else?
The forked trails of San Francisco and New York City are particularly striking, but not unique. World wide, COVID-19 has a great variety of effects. In the U.S.Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths have skyrocketed in nearly every major city in the northeast, but remain fairly low in other large cities such as Houston, Phoenix, and San Diego.
How cities and states Implemented Public health interventions such as school closures and telecommuting vary. Regardless of how they worked for whom, comparing these interventions can provide insight into disease and improve future policy decisions. But making an accurate comparison is not easy.
Scope of COVID-19 interventions implemented in the United States and around the world Was not random, Make it difficult to compare them. Population density, household size, public transport availability, and hospital capacity, among others, may contribute to the difference in deaths from COVID-19 in San Francisco and New York City. These types of differences complicate the analysis of response efficacy for the COVID-19 pandemic.
So Biostatistician And Epidemiologist, We use statistical methods to categorize causes and effects by controlling differences between communities. COVID-19 often sees comparisons that do not adjust for these differences. The following experiment shows why it matters.
Urban simulation reveals the paradox
To explain the danger of comparisons where differences can’t be adjusted, a simple Computer simulation We use only three virtual variables: the size of five up to 15 cities, the timing of home orders, and the cumulative death of COVID-19.
COVID-19 mortality was plotted for 300 simulated cities, with a delay defined as the number of days between March 1 and the order placed. In cities of comparable size, delays in implementing home-based orders have been associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. Specifically, 40-63 deaths are expected for every 10-day delay. The fictitious policy recommendations from this analysis are for immediate implementation of home orders.
Next, consider a plot of the same 300 simulated cities without considering the size of the cities. The relationship between delay and death is reversed. Early implementations in this simulation are strongly associated with more deaths and later implementations are associated with fewer deaths. This obvious Paradox Caused by the causal relationship between city size, delays and COVID-19 mortality. A strong connection or association between two variables does not guarantee that one variable will cause another. Correlation does not mean causality..
Failure to properly address these relationships can be misleading and dramatically impact policymakers. In these simulations, an analysis that does not consider the size of the city leads to a false policy recommendation that the home order be delayed or never executed.
Gets more complicated
Of course, inferring causal relationships in real life is more complicated than computer simulations of only three variables.
In addition to confounding factors such as community size, substantial evidence suggests that public health interventions do not protect all people equally.
In San Francisco, there is a severe gap. For example, a comprehensive test in the Mission District shows that 95% of those who test positive Hispanic.. Socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity and many other factors Varies by community COVID-19 infection and mortality can be affected. Differences in locals make it more difficult to properly interpret comparisons such as San Francisco and New York.
So how do you effectively learn in your current environment?
This is a particularly pressing issue, but the analytical challenges of COVID-19 are not new. Public health professionals have long used data from nonrandomized studies, even in the midst of the epidemic. When the cholera occurred in London in 1849, John SnowWell-known in the epidemiological community, we used available data, simple tools, and careful consideration to identify water pumps as the cause of the epidemic of the disease. Evidence-based decisions require both data and appropriate methods to analyze the data.
Cities and communities around the world differ in important ways that can complicate public health research. Strict application of Causal reasoning method Taking into account population differences is necessary to guide policy and avoid misleading conclusions.
Laura B. Balzer is an associate professor of biostatistics and a director of the U Mass Causality Lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Brian W. Whitcom is an Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst University.
What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online
LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos
to request, modification Contact us at Here or [email protected]