Health
Coronavirus: According to modeling, New Zealand can have 200-800 hospitalizations per day during the outbreak of Omicron.
However, Dr. Audrey Lustig warned that modeling shows that hospitals are under pressure even at high vaccination rates.
“The demand for hospitals and intensive care units remains high and will put a heavy burden on the capabilities of our hospitals.”
Modeling examined three different transmission speeds, low, medium and high, with booster speeds of 90% and 70%.
Based on the low infection rate and 90% increase in eligible individuals, which began on February 1, New Zealand is expected to have a total of 386,400 cases and 460 deaths.
In the same scenario, with a booster rate of 70%, there are a total of 447,000 cases and 560 deaths.
A moderate infection scenario, with 90% of eligible individuals boosted, results in a total of 626,000 cases and 840 deaths.
If the booster rate drops to 70%, the number of cases will jump to 680,200 and the death toll will reach 950.
There are 857,900 cases and 1330 deaths in New Zealand for outbreaks of high infections, boosted by 90% of eligible people.
If the booster rate drops to 70% at high infection rates, the number of cases will reach 895,600 and 1450 will die.
Professor Michael Planck said modeling emphasizes the importance of boosters to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.
“It’s hard to exaggerate how effective a vaccine is in blunting the health effects of COVID-19,” Planck said. “Currently, the only reason we can think of a total of hundreds of thousands of cases is high vaccination rates and a significant reduction in the risk of hospitalization and death.
“For most people, the risk of getting seriously ill with Omicron is very low if they have the latest information on vaccination, but Omicron has a very large number of cases that it can cause. , Still can overwhelm the medical system. It’s a short time. ”
Lead author Dr. Giorgia Vattiato, along with boosters, states that mask use and social distance are important for controlling the spread of the virus.
“This flattens the curve, which means that the demand for the medical system is distributed over a longer period of time rather than all at the same time.”
Professor Plank states that the message from modeling is clear.
“The more people are encouraged, the fewer beds are used in COVID-19 patients-it’s that easy.”
Modeling also raised concerns about weakened immunity, saying that the first person to receive the booster (such as frontline workers) would be more at risk over time.
“Outbreaks that occur after a significant weakening of immunity can have a higher overall health burden than outbreaks that occur during peak immunization. Maintaining high levels of immunity in all groups is Important for future vaccination strategies. ”
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Sources 2/ https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/02/coronavirus-modelling-shows-nz-could-see-200-to-800-hospitalisations-a-day-during-omicron-outbreak.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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