Health
When will COVID end in India?Experts explain what’s in after Omicron
In India, prominent virologists commented that COVID could soon enter the endemic stage unless new variants surprise us. He added that the possibility of endemic disease cannot be counted unless the country shows that the number of COVID-19 cases is low and stable for four consecutive weeks. This happens when the third wave of COVID-19 has peaked in India. Over the last 9 days, the daily COVID count has been below Rs 10,000.
“When plotting the number of cases in the community on a graph, the rising, peaking, and falling patterns represent epidemics (or outbreaks), and the horizontal steady-state number of cases is called endemic. “When we call each one a wave,” Dr. T. Jacob John, a former director of the Center for Advanced Viral Sciences of the Indian Medical Research Council, told PTI.
“So we can’t still call the valley endemic without seeing a low and stable number of four weeks with only slight fluctuations,” John argued.
Is India in the stage of endemic disease?
John noted that Omicron is rapidly retreating in India and said that the endemic stage may come soon unless another variant surprises us.
“Omicron waves are retreating so fast that they may reach the valley in a few days, but wait four weeks to see the endemic epidemic,” he said.
“My intellectual guess: I’ll be in the endemic stage for months without the alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron waves going away. It spreads faster than omicron and is more efficient in immunity. There are few variants of this. Avoid the appearance of deltas and omicrons. “
“But just as Omicron surprised us, another strange variant could surprise us again,” he warned.
John also said that at the stage of endemic disease, he could get infected, get sick, be hospitalized, or even die.
You need to learn to live with COVID
However, another expert pointed out that whether COVID-19 was prevalent in India was not very relevant from the point of view of the general public. He further argued that we needed to learn to live with the virus.
“This is a discourse that will continue for some time. From the perspective of interventional epidemiology focused on operational solutions, India will soon be at a stage where everything should be fully open in a few weeks,” said Delhi-based physician epidemiology. Dr. Chandra Kantrahariya, a member and managing director, said. Foundation for People-Centric Health Systems told PTI.
“From that point on, people will have to adapt to new ways of living with the virus, depending on the level of risk, but nothing should be stopped for COVID-19,” Lahariya added. ..
Mr. Lahariya said the pandemic ends with a socio-political consensus for society to reach an agreement on what it calls endemic.
“The important thing to remember is that a pandemic starts with a pathogen. In this case, it’s caused by a virus. It ends with a socio-political consensus to reach an agreement on what society wants to call endemic. Will not be a pandemic or an endemic alternative. “
(There is input from the agency)
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