When will Covid-19 become popular in India?Virologist explains

Dr. T. Jacob John, a virologist, said the disease is unlikely to be in the endemic stage unless the number of cases of Covid-19 in India for four weeks is low and only slight fluctuations are seen. Stated.

He also said that the Covid-19 epidemic is expected to last for months, with “almost no” possibility of another variant being more contagious than Omicron and more toxic than Delta. Stated.

The third wave of Covid-19 in India has peaked. The number of cases began to decline after January 21, when 3,47,254 infections were reported.

As of Tuesday, daily Covid-19 cases in India have been below Rs 10,000 for 9 consecutive days.

John said that the term endemic means modifying the pattern.

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“When plotting community case numbers on a graph, rising, peaking, and falling patterns represent epidemics (or outbreaks), and case numbers as a horizontal steady state are called endemic. Is called a wave.

“So we can’t still call the valley endemic unless we see a low and stable number of four weeks with only slight fluctuations,” John said. PTI..

“Omicron waves are retreating so fast that they may reach the valley in a few days, but wait four weeks to see the endemic epidemic,” he said.

Asked what to expect in the coming months, the former director of the Center for Advanced Virology of the Indian Medical Research Council said it was unpredictable, only speculative.

“My intellectual guess: I’ll be in the endemic stage for months without the alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron waves going away. It spreads faster than omicron and is more efficient in immunity. There are few variants of this. Avoid the appearance of deltas and omicrons. “

“But just as Omicron surprised us, another strange variant could surprise us again,” he warned.

He also said that at the stage of endemic disease, he could get infected, get sick, be hospitalized, or even die.

John warned that without high immunization rates, small waves could recur, perhaps once a year or once every few years, adjusted by immunization rates for all age groups.

“We have vaccines. For all current vaccines, two doses and boosts are the minimum schedule. Additional boosts will be determined by future information,” he added.

Dr. Chandra Kantrahariya, Physician Epidemiologist and Managing Director of the Delhi-based People’s Center Health Systems Foundation, said whether the Covid-19 epidemic in India was not very important from the general public’s point of view. rice field.

“This is a discourse that will continue for some time. From an intervention epidemiology perspective focused on operational solutions, India will be in a stage where everything should be fully open in the coming weeks.

“From that point on, people need to adapt to new ways of living with the virus, depending on the level of risk, but nothing should be stopped for Covid-19,” Lahariya told PTI.

To facilitate a smooth transition, he said he needed to initiate a socio-political discourse on what was normal and how to ensure maximum security.

“This means improved ventilation in confined spaces, increased protection for high-risk people, and the phasing out of mask obligations. First children, then adults. Unless this social discourse begins. , Things will be delayed, “he added.

Mr. Lahariya said the pandemic ends with a socio-political consensus for society to reach an agreement on what it calls endemic.

“The important thing to remember is that a pandemic starts with a pathogen. In this case, it’s caused by a virus. It ends with a socio-political consensus to reach an agreement on what society wants to call endemic. Will not be a pandemic or an endemic alternative. “

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