You need to define when the pandemic is epidemic

The governor and public health officials are divided on whether the COVID-19 pandemic has reached the endemic stage almost two years after the first blockade of most of the country. Some say that the definition of endemic itself is controversial, especially when applied to the coronavirus.

The United States has emerged from the surge in Omicron that led to record-breaking cases. This is a development that hopes that when the country learns to live with the coronavirus, it could push the country to an endemic stage where masks and other restrictions may be lifted. It lives with the flu.

But whether that stage is on the horizon is hotly debated. And even if the country is heading for endemic and moving away from the pandemic, there is a warning that the country must still be ready for the upcoming difficult days.

The governor, who deals with voters who are fed up with both pandemics and life restrictions, says it’s time to call it endemic.

“We believe we need to move from a pandemic situation and operational mode to more endemic, where we normalize, take it very seriously and prepare, but get out of panic mode. I think we need to, “Governor Asa Hutchison (R) of Arkansas said at the end of last month when he appeared on NBC’s” Meet the Press. “

Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey (D) announced preparations to end the state’s mask mission at school: “How to live with COVID as we move from the pandemic of this virus to the endemic stage. I need to learn. ” Media briefing February 7th.

“I don’t think many of them are clear what they mean when using this term.” Tara C. Smith, a professor of public health at Kent State University, said in an email to Changing America. “Endemic” means that it does not go away. It does not mean a mild or harmless or low level of infection. Still, some people are used to mean all of them. “

Recently, the Wisconsin Chief Medical Officer said the coronavirus could become endemic in 2022. Associated Press.. State cases decreased from an average of nearly 19,000 omicrons per day for seven days to less than 5,000. A small number of cases may indicate that the coronavirus is stable.

Vancouver Health Authority He also said that he is moving towards a “endemic” approach to treating COVID-19. Colorado It also recently announced that the transition to endemic response could occur as early as this summer. others, Ohio Health Authority, I’m not there yet, but I’m refraining from saying a lot, saying, “We’re heading there.”

When asked if the coronavirus appeared to be epidemic, Smith said, “I think so, but I don’t think it’s there yet.” She continues. “And even if we were, we still have thousands of deaths per day, an under-vaccinated population, and new variants that could drive us into a new surge. I am suffering from a threat. “

Endemic illnesses are usually transient processes that occur over a long period of time. There are several factors that make a pathogen endemic, such as population susceptibility, behavioral changes that affect infection, and whether the pathogen itself is changing. “The same virus can cause endemic, epidemic, or pandemic infections. It depends on the emergence of viral variants in addition to population behavior, demographic structure, susceptibility, and immune interactions. It depends. ” Evolutionary virologist Aris Katzourakis Nature.. “Various conditions around the world can lead to the evolution of more successful variants, which can create new epidemic waves.”

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Epidemiologists and health authorities do not always agree on what endemic means. Epidemiologist Delivette Castor of Columbia University School of Medicine generally states that endemic diseases are predictable cases, whether or not they mean that they have a reliable seasonal or stable geographical distribution. I have a pattern. To call it endemic, we need to determine the level of acceptable cases, Castor adds.

But given the recent decline in Omicron in the United States, experts warn that it may be premature to predict what will happen in 2022.

New variants can emerge, leading to new surges, and if the state already considers the coronavirus endemic, it can lead to whiplash. Health authorities around the world are paying attention to the Omicron subvariant named BA.2. It overtakes the original Omicron variant in some European countries. Denmark.. As the virus is still widespread, more variants will emerge in the United States and abroad, potentially prolonging emergencies.

Even if the coronavirus becomes endemic, there is a high case rate and subsequent hospitalization or death can occur. Epidemics occur with endemic disease, because even diseases that are considered endemic can have varying prevalence of the disease. For example, malaria is endemic in many parts of the world, but the extent to which malaria is present in the population depends on the season, geographic location, mosquito species that act as vector, and many other factors. Will differ.

It may be helpful to start thinking about endemic coronavirus strategies, but it may not be possible to predict what they will look like and when they will occur. Caster also doesn’t think we’re in the endemic stage yet, but we seem to be heading there. If you determine a particular threshold level of cases annually or seasonally, it is still unclear what exactly that means and what the cycle will look like.Says the caster. The method of defining an epidemic may also vary from region to region.

“Now we feel good,” she continues. “We feel it will be endemic. We use the term endemic as a way to indicate that we are living with it and trying to act in a” normal “way. increase. But we need to do a lot of quantification in order to predict what we can do. “

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